At 8:54 am this morning, Kalshi reported an unrealized return of zero dollars on the question of whether President Donald Trump would be impeached and leave office. At that time, the event contract last traded “no” at $0.84. The payout was listed at $1.16. Market value of the contract was -$0.97 and a total return of -$0.01 or -1%.
By 5:18 pm this afternoon, the contract last traded a “no” at $0.83 with a market value of -$0.95 and a total return of -$0.03 or -3.47%.
Reuters reported not much movement from today’s meeting between President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping. How much do I think Mr. Trump’s meeting with President Xi will bear upon the question of impeachment and removal?
First, a meeting with a large economic and military adversary gives Mr. Trump an edge in the negotiating space. Mr. Trump could message to the American public that while the U.S. carries a large economic and military stick, he is willing to negotiate with Mr. Xi and get some type of agreement on military arms, Taiwan, and trade.
Coming away with some sort of deal on the world economy and the military would, as I pointed out yesterday, put the Democratic Party in a bind. They could argue that Mr. Trump has not done enough to counter China but would have to risk countering Mr. Trump with a proposal that never has a chance of winning.
But for Mr. Trump, if he creates a door for further negotiations with China, ending his meeting with President Xi on a positive note, then he could make potential success a part of his campaign message this fall.
Second, if the Democratic Party wins both chambers of the Congress, they can potentially skip discussions on China and go straight to impeaching and removing the President. I would expect their focus to shift from China to getting 218 members of the House and 67 members of the Senate to vote on impeaching and removing the President.
If the Democrats win the House after the November 2026 mid-terms but the Republicans maintain their majority in the Senate, the Democrats will have to demonstrate to enough Republicans in the Senate why the President should be removed. That may be a tough road depending on the arguments the Democrats would have to make and the number of Republican senators they would have to persuade.
At this point of election season, I still expect that Mr. Trump will survive Democratic Party’s efforts to impeach and remove him from office.
Alton Drew
24 September 2026
