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CFTC Seeks Public Comment on Notice of Proposed Rulemaking Concerning the Inclusion of Certain Event Contracts in the Definition of Swap

October 09, 2026 WASHINGTON — The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that proposes providing additional market clarity by expressly further defining the term “swap” to include event contracts, including those based on sports, politics, cultural, and weather-related events. The proposal notes these contracts are financial instruments that are commonly … Continue reading CFTC Seeks Public Comment on Notice of Proposed Rulemaking Concerning the Inclusion of Certain Event Contracts in the Definition of Swap

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CFTC Issues Interim Final Rule Excluding Certain Activity from the Definition of Swap

October 09, 2026 WASHINGTON — The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today published an Interim Final Rule that codifies the CFTC’s longstanding position that casino-style gambling products, including wagers placed on sportsbooks and casino games, are excluded from the “swap” definition. “Casino-style gambling products are not derivatives,” said Chairman Michael S. Selig. “Just as the CFTC … Continue reading CFTC Issues Interim Final Rule Excluding Certain Activity from the Definition of Swap

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If the Democrats do not impeach Trump, what will they do next?

Little has changed today regarding the probability of President Donald Trump’s impeachment and removal from the White House. According to Kalshi, a prediction market, at 10:15 this morning, the market value of the question of Mr. Trump’s impeachment and removal from office stood at $0.97 with a return of $0.00. The position on this morning’s … Continue reading If the Democrats do not impeach Trump, what will they do next?

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Trump continues to holdoff question of impeachment and removal.

A scan of headlines from the American media told me that reporters here in the States may be looking, temporarily at least, at other issues in American politics. On Kalshi, the question, “Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?”, saw only the slightest changes in the statistics. There is nothing in today’s press reports … Continue reading Trump continues to holdoff question of impeachment and removal.

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The bet on an impeachment and removal of Trump slumps ever so slightly.

Slightly better news for supporters of U.S. President Donald Trump on the question of whether the President will be impeached and removed from office. Yesterday, Kalshi reported an unrealized return of -$0.02 on the bet that Mr. Trump’s presidency would not survive to 20 January 2029. The question last traded at a “no” of 82 … Continue reading The bet on an impeachment and removal of Trump slumps ever so slightly.

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On the question of impeachment and removal, the markets appear quiet for now.

At 8:54 am this morning, Kalshi reported an unrealized return of zero dollars on the question of whether President Donald Trump would be impeached and leave office. At that time, the event contract last traded “no” at $0.84. The payout was listed at $1.16. Market value of the contract was -$0.97 and a total return … Continue reading On the question of impeachment and removal, the markets appear quiet for now.

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Can Trump turn good behavior toward Xi into avoiding impeachment and removal from office in 2027?

At 9:48 am, the Kalshi market answer to the question, “Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?”, still held at a “no” response, priced at $.82. The change in 24 hours prior had been -0.20% with an unrealized return -2.06%. The Kalshi priced the market value of the question at $0.95 with a total … Continue reading Can Trump turn good behavior toward Xi into avoiding impeachment and removal from office in 2027?

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Trump experiences a slight bump on whether he will be impeached and removed from office.

Chances that U.S. President Donald J. Trump would be impeached and removed from the White House went down slightly today between 9:18 am and 7:29 pm. According to news from Reuters, Mr. Trump’s approval rating this morning was below 36%. The United States’ war with Iran was showing no signs this morning of easing up. … Continue reading Trump experiences a slight bump on whether he will be impeached and removed from office.