At 8:54 am this morning, Kalshi reported an unrealized return of zero dollars on the question of whether President Donald Trump would be impeached and leave office. At that time, the event contract last traded “no” at $0.84. The payout was listed at $1.16. Market value of the contract was -$0.97 and a total return … Continue reading On the question of impeachment and removal, the markets appear quiet for now.
At 9:48 am, the Kalshi market answer to the question, “Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?”, still held at a “no” response, priced at $.82. The change in 24 hours prior had been -0.20% with an unrealized return -2.06%. The Kalshi priced the market value of the question at $0.95 with a total … Continue reading Can Trump turn good behavior toward Xi into avoiding impeachment and removal from office in 2027?
Chances that U.S. President Donald J. Trump would be impeached and removed from the White House went down slightly today between 9:18 am and 7:29 pm. According to news from Reuters, Mr. Trump’s approval rating this morning was below 36%. The United States’ war with Iran was showing no signs this morning of easing up. … Continue reading Trump experiences a slight bump on whether he will be impeached and removed from office.
No changes from yesterday as markets maintained their bets that U.S. President Donald Trump may be able to hold on to the Oval Office until 20 January 2029. Kalshi on the question as to whether Mr. Trump will be impeached and forced to leave office has a “yes” answer priced at $.18 while a “no” … Continue reading The markets are still betting that Trump will survive attempts to remove him from office.
All was quiet today on the Western Front as the U.S. Supreme Court, the United States Court of Appeals-Fourth Circuit, the United States District Court-District of Maryland, and the Supreme Court of Maryland issued no orders addressing event contracts or prediction markets. There were no orders issued today by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission addressing … Continue reading Will the Democrats make a market for getting Trump out of office in January 2027?
Today was another uneventful day for Maryland courts addressing the issue of event contracts and prediction markets. It was uneventful because neither the U.S. Supreme Court, U.S. Court of Appeals-4th Circuit, U.S. District Court-Maryland, or the Supreme Court of Maryland made determinations about the issues of artificial intelligence, event contracts, or prediction markets. I also … Continue reading The question courts should address is what is so artificial about intelligence?
We are about halfway through the market day. Over the next few days, I will be looking at neurodivergence. I have been hearing talk about how society may move toward a neurodivergent state of being. This is not surprising giving all the hoopla we are hearing about more people, particularly the young, being let go … Continue reading Neurodivergents should ask a few questions.
I reviewed Maryland state and federal court findings and rulings for 3 September 2026 on event contracts and prediction markets. Nothing stood out to me except for the possibility that the U.S. Supreme Court may address the question whether prediction markets could extract taxes from the States and transfer them to the federal governments. The … Continue reading Should states have jurisdiction over sports event or gambling contracts formed in their states?
On 27 August 2026, the following courts had no opinions released regarding prediction markets or event contracts: Supreme Court of Maryland United States District Court for the District of Maryland United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit Supreme Court of the United States Alton Drew 27 August 2026 Continue reading What the Courts said today about event contracts and prediction markets. 27 August 2026
