Category: prediction markets

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Maryland courts were silent on event contracts and prediction markets today.

Today, neither the Supreme Court of Maryland, the U.S. District Court-District of Maryland, or the U.S. Court of Appeals-Fourth Circuit Court issued a ruling regarding artificial intelligence, event contracts, or prediction markets. The U.S. Supreme Court, which recently began its 2026-2027 session, did not issue any orders regarding artificial intelligence, event contracts, or prediction markets. … Continue reading Maryland courts were silent on event contracts and prediction markets today.

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A little market action on an otherwise quiet holiday.

It was Columbus Day here in the United States. Federal government offices, the post office, and most bank branches were closed to commemorate the landing of Christopher Columbus on the island of San Salvador in The Bahamas. The prediction markets in the United States were not closed. While we are three weeks away from mid-term … Continue reading A little market action on an otherwise quiet holiday.

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If the Democrats do not impeach Trump, what will they do next?

Little has changed today regarding the probability of President Donald Trump’s impeachment and removal from the White House. According to Kalshi, a prediction market, at 10:15 this morning, the market value of the question of Mr. Trump’s impeachment and removal from office stood at $0.97 with a return of $0.00. The position on this morning’s … Continue reading If the Democrats do not impeach Trump, what will they do next?

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Trump continues to holdoff question of impeachment and removal.

A scan of headlines from the American media told me that reporters here in the States may be looking, temporarily at least, at other issues in American politics. On Kalshi, the question, “Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?”, saw only the slightest changes in the statistics. There is nothing in today’s press reports … Continue reading Trump continues to holdoff question of impeachment and removal.

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On the question of impeachment and removal, the markets appear quiet for now.

At 8:54 am this morning, Kalshi reported an unrealized return of zero dollars on the question of whether President Donald Trump would be impeached and leave office. At that time, the event contract last traded “no” at $0.84. The payout was listed at $1.16. Market value of the contract was -$0.97 and a total return … Continue reading On the question of impeachment and removal, the markets appear quiet for now.

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Should states have jurisdiction over sports event or gambling contracts formed in their states?

I reviewed Maryland state and federal court findings and rulings for 3 September 2026 on event contracts and prediction markets. Nothing stood out to me except for the possibility that the U.S. Supreme Court may address the question whether prediction markets could extract taxes from the States and transfer them to the federal governments. The … Continue reading Should states have jurisdiction over sports event or gambling contracts formed in their states?

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What the Courts said today about event contracts and prediction markets. 27 August 2026

On 27 August 2026, the following courts had no opinions released regarding prediction markets or event contracts: Supreme Court of Maryland United States District Court for the District of Maryland United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit Supreme Court of the United States Alton Drew 27 August 2026 Continue reading What the Courts said today about event contracts and prediction markets. 27 August 2026