Last Thursday at approximately 5:18 pm, the unrealized return on the question whether or not President Donald Trump will be impeached and removed from the White House was -$0.03 or negative three percent. Kalshi showed a last trade of $.83 and a market value of -$0.95.
As of 10:25 pm yesterday, the unrealized return on the question was up to -$0.02 or negative two percent. The last trade was at $.82 and a market value of -$0.95.
Meanwhile, U.S. Representative Steve Cohen, Democrat of Tennessee, has filed 26 articles of impeachment against President Trump. The articles of impeachment address Mr. Trump’s:
Immigration policies;
Abuse of military power;
Federal spending;
Tariffs;
Presidential pardons;
Federal workforce policies;
Policies toward universities;
Actions against law firms;
Actions against the media; and
The President’s alleged financial benefits form the presidency.
The markets expect no success on the part of Mr. Cohen’s attempts to impeach Mr. Trump and remove the President from office. Even if the Democrats were able to impeach Mr. Trump, 67 senators would have to find the President guilty of “high crimes or misdemeanors.
In addition, the “high crimes and misdemeanors” Mr. Cohen attempts to bring against Mr. Trump don’t appear to meet the criteria spelled out in the U.S. Constitution. At first glance Mr. Cohen’s list does not appear to contain much in terms of crimes. Also, the time spent by the Democrats in their attempts to impeach and remove Mr. Trump from office could be spent, as I pointed out yesterday, finding a candidate that could beat the Republican candidate in November 2028.
The Democrats have yet to show me that they have a game plan for winning the White House in the next two years.
Alton Drew
29 September 2026
