At 9:48 am, the Kalshi market answer to the question, “Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?”, still held at a “no” response, priced at $.82. The change in 24 hours prior had been -0.20% with an unrealized return -2.06%. The Kalshi priced the market value of the question at $0.95 with a total return -$0.03.
By 8:25 pm, Kalshi reported in the last 24 hours a change of $0.00 with an unrealized return 0.00%. The last trade amount was unchanged at $.82 along with no change in market value of $0.95. Total return shrunk but was still in the negative at -$0.01.
I do not know if the slight increase toward a more positive number was due to U.S. President Donald Trump today meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping. Reuters reports that issues including Taiwan, rare earth, and narcotics are lowering expectations of any major break throughs during President Xi’s visit to the United States. Reuters believes that on Thursday there may be a chance for lowered tariffs in specific sectors, cooperation on drug trafficking, and further talks regarding the militaries of both nations.
Do I see President Trump meeting with President Xi helping Mr. Trump avoid removal from office? As I touched on a couple nights ago, whether Mr. Trump escapes impeachment and removal will depend on how this meeting with Mr. Xi impacts Mr. Trump’s approval rating, which the last time I checked was below 36%.
There again appears to be no slowdown in the United States’ conflict with Iran. China appears to have a good relationship with Iran and may be in a position to intervene on behalf of the United States. To get China to sell a truce to Iran may mean that the United States will have to make some kind of offering not only to Iran but to China as well. Mr. Trump will have to sell the two-prong offering to Congress and to the American people.
My instincts tell me that Mr. Trump may have an easier time selling to the American electorate some type of deal with China and Iran versus members of Congress. The deal would have to appear not to take any money out of the average American’s pocket or otherwise put the United States at some disadvantage.
Mr. Trump may have a harder time with fellow Republicans in Congress. A deal with President Xi would make the hawks in the Republican Party uneasy given their various attacks on China.
But who would really be in a bind would be the congressional Democrats. If the Trump administration were able to exchange some kind of concessions with Iran via China, congressional Democrats would risk being the party that keeps the United States in a conflict with Iran. Also, to a lesser extent, congressional Democrats that take issue with any proposed deal between the United States and Iran would be in conflict with China. China may throw up its hands in diplomatic defeat accusing congressional Democrats specifically and the United States in general as holding up a process of peace.
Alton Drew
23 September 2026
