No changes from yesterday as markets maintained their bets that U.S. President Donald Trump may be able to hold on to the Oval Office until 20 January 2029. Kalshi on the question as to whether Mr. Trump will be impeached and forced to leave office has a “yes” answer priced at $.18 while a “no” answer comes in at $.84.
Yesterday I purchased a “no” answer to the question at $.8495, so I am down $.0095. As we move into the weekend, I expect more downward pressure on the price especially given that there are just over seven weeks left until the November 2026 midterm elections.
Representatives of the Democratic Party allegedly view attempts to remove the President from office as “optional.” I believe optional could change to more definitive should the Democratic Party also take the U.S. Senate.
In my post yesterday I spelled out a number of arguments the Democratic Party may bring up against Mr. Trump. Combined they hold little water. Article I Section III of the U.S. Constitution requires a vote by 2/3 of the U.S. Senate to remove a sitting president. Even if the Democratic Party wins a majority of seats in the U.S. Senate, the Democrats would have to win some Republicans onto their side. Currently, the Democrats have 45 senate seats. Independents Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine caucus with the Democrats. Assuming Messrs. Sanders and King vote with the Democratic Party on the issue of removing Mr. Trump, the Democrats would need 20 senators from the Republican side to cross the aisle and vote with the Democratic Party.
It is only 17 September. Who knows what could happen over the next 47 days?
Alton Drew
17 September 2026
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 