All was quiet today on the Western Front as the U.S. Supreme Court, the United States Court of Appeals-Fourth Circuit, the United States District Court-District of Maryland, and the Supreme Court of Maryland issued no orders addressing event contracts or prediction markets. There were no orders issued today by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission addressing event contracts or prediction markets as well.
As a side note, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System decided to raise the range of the federal funds rate to a range between 3.75 percent and four percent. Federal Reserve Board chairman Kevin Warsh, sticking to his short but sweet approach to post Fed meeting press conferences (30 minutes today with one question per reporter) did not discuss artificial intelligence, event contracts, or prediction markets (I would have been surprised if he did).
The scuttlebutt is that there may be one more rate hike before the end of 2026 and at least another rate hike sometime in 2027. Prediction market Kalshi has a determined a 22% chance of one more fed funds rate hike in 2026 but a 63% chance of a fed funds rate hike by the end of the year.
According to the Federal Reserve, the federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal reserve to other depository institutions overnight. Changes in the federal funds rate are important because of the impact changes in this rate may have on other interest rates. These rates include other short-term rates, foreign exchange rates, long-term rates, the amount of money and credit, and other economic variables.
For voters, the above discussion on how the Federal Reserve is regulating the economy may add to their concerns about an economy that supports their children’s education, retirement benefits, and the ability to go to the grocery store. The Federal Reserve may be a mystery to these voters. Heck, the Federal Reserve is still a mystery to those who study the Fed’s move on rates and reactions to the economy.
The bigger question for voters is whether President Donald Trump will be impeached and removed from office? When we throw in the topic of the economy (a topic no president can avoid), Mr. Trump and his cabinet must also be thinking whether the economy will be part of the equation.
Article II, Section IV may give the President an out, at least where being removed from office for economic reasons are concerned. “The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, the Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.” None of the three presidents that faced impeachment Andrew Johnson, William J. Clinton, or Donald J. Trump, were ever removed from office.
According to Kalshi, while Mr. Trump may not get a third term as president, he may survive impeachment a third time. There is a 17% chance that the President will be removed from office versus an 84% chance that he is not removed from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Democrats are keeping impeachment open as an option versus broader investigations to the dealings of the President’s family. Investigations on the part of the House could include subpoenas, committee hearings, possible criminal referrals, and/or the budget. Democrats, however, are reluctant to making impeachment a centerpiece of their agenda.
I am betting there will be no impeachment of the President by January 2029.
Alton Drew
16 September 2026
Sources:
Trump impeachment is back on the table. Here’s what Democrats could investigate if they win the House
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