Little has changed today regarding the probability of President Donald Trump’s impeachment and removal from the White House. According to Kalshi, a prediction market, at 10:15 this morning, the market value of the question of Mr. Trump’s impeachment and removal from office stood at $0.97 with a return of $0.00. The position on this morning’s trade was $0.97 with a total return of -$0.01 or a negative one percent.
By 5:32 pm, the market value of trade on the question of impeachment and removal was $0.94 with an unrealized return of -$0.03. The position on that trade was $0.93 with a total return of -$0.05(-5.00%).
So, while the Democrats could impeach President Trump early next year, removing him from office still seems unlikely given that the U.S. Senate would need 67 senators voting to send him back to Florida.
Republicans still believe that they have an outside chance of holding the U.S. House in next month’s midterm elections although polling numbers are increasing against the chances that the Grand Old Party will even hold onto the House. The scuttlebutt is that the U.S. Senate could fall to the Democrats as well but given the necessary 67 votes needed in the Senate to oust the President, such a scenario where Mr. Trump will be spending more time on the golf course at Mar-a-Largo still seems unlikely.
For this reason, I am still betting a “no” on the question of whether Mr. Trump will be impeached and removed from the Oval Office.
Alton Drew
7 October 2026
