As I write, the EUR/USD is at 1.17139. The EUR/USD has been increasing since 4:00 am when it read 1.16823.
All eyes are on Anchorage, Alaska as U.S. president Donald Trump is set to meet Russian Federation president Vladimir Putin to discuss a resolution of Russia’s war with Ukraine. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has not been invited to this sit down although any likely final agreement would have to include him along with a three-way handshake for the cameras.
Via my 1,000-mile view of the sitting US president, Mr. Trump strikes me as someone who is not going to expend energy in any negotiation without getting a piece of the action for himself or the United States, which in statecraft means for himself.
From an events contract view, the sit down in Anchorage is the weightiest event for the day thus my interest.
President Trump has already extracted some mineral deals from Ukraine. As reported by Newsweek, back in May 2025, Mr. Trump secured an agreement from Ukraine where the U.S. and Ukraine could share profits and royalties from the future sale of Ukrainian minerals and rare earth metals. Ukraine, reportedly, has five percent of the world’s critical raw materials.
In addition, a reconstruction investment fund has been established to receive 50% of royalties and licenses from natural resource projects. The purpose of the fund, according to the Trump administration, is to facilitate Ukraine’s long-term infrastructure and economic growth.
I don’t see right now what Mr. Trump may want from Mr. Putin from an economic perspective. Currently, the U.S.-Russia trade relationship is based more on U.S. sanctions against Russia versus importing manufactures or food from Russia. Russia has never been a major U.S. trading partner and outside of offering to lift sanctions on countries that trade for Russian oil or lifting sanctions off of Russia itself, I do not see Mr. Trump walking away with anything for the U.S. itself, per se.
From more of a geo-political view, if Mr. Trump promises to be vigorous in keeping NATO out of Russia’s backyard, the gains for the U.S. may be an establishing dominance in managing European external affairs while at the same time being a supplier of goods and services to Europe and vigorous competitor with China. The longer term, more hidden play may be to keep Europe within the American sphere of influence by negating Europe’s role in negotiating trade or defense with other countries.
From a EUR/USD perspective, the risk to Mr. Trump’s weak dollar policy is that re-establishing U.S. economic dominance means a stronger U.S. currency.
Alton Drew
15 August 2025
Disclaimer: The above post is not intended to provide legal or trading advice. Trading is risky. Before embarking on your trading journey, reach out to a professional trading advisor and do your homework.
For a legal consultation regarding your trading environment, contact me at altondrew@altondrew.com.
Alton Drew
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