President Trump has not yet posted on whitehouse.gov his pleasure with today’s jobs situation report. He likely said something on Truth Social, but I am just about up to here with social media so I will wait on Mr. Trump to use the public channels for expressing his glee.
The report out of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics painted an upbeat view of the labor market. According to BLS data the U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs accompanied by an unemployment rate of 4.1% in the month of June. In addition, the BLS reported an upward revision of May’s payroll numbers from an initial 139,000 to 144,000.
Most of June’s non-farm payroll increase was in the local and state government and healthcare sectors. The federal government job sector saw a decrease of 69,000 jobs in June. I cannot say how much of the federal labor force displaced by DOGE hopped on over to the local and state government sector.
Around 8:24 am, it did not look too promising for the dollar as markets waited for the release of the jobs report. The “move away from America” sentiment seemed in full force with the EUR/USD at 1.17886. If the report was a bad one then I would have expected the exchange rate to crack the 1.1800 resistance level.
But alas! At 8:32 am the market seemed to be risk on again as the EUR/USD plummeted to 1.1722. The jobs number was better than the expected 110,000 and a 4.1% unemployment rate (which used to be considered full employment) likely told traders that there was still some good heat in the U.S. political economy.
Right now, at 9:34 am, according to data from NADEX, the EUR/USD is at 1.1763.
At 9:34 am still no victory lap by the President. I expect him to take one soon.
Alton Drew
3 July 2025
For an analysis of the legal or regulatory environment surrounding the events described in this post, contact me at altondrew@altondrew.com to set up an appointment.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. These blog posts are for educational purposes only. Trading of any kind involves risk. Your trading decisions are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research and seek professional advice as necessary.
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