The 4:15 pm fix is in. According to the Federal Reserve’s data, two-year and ten-year yields have been inching up over the last week. Throw in a little dollar weakening compared to the euro. Given we are closer to the beginning of Election Day (14.5 hours at the time of this writing), could some political risk be seeping in?
Analysts have argued that no matter who the president is, there will be an increase in the deficit. Congress is notoriously unpopular, but could a split Congress be the dampening effect on political risks that the markets need?
Foreign exchange rates per the Board of Governors-Federal Reserve System.
EUR/USD=1.0848
USD/JPY=152.9400
Administered rates per the Board of Governors-Federal Reserve System.
Effective Federal Funds Rate: 4.83%
Interest on Reserve Balances: 4.90%
Discount Window: 5.00%
Treasury rates per the Board of Governors-Federal Reserve System.
2-yr Treasuries: 4.21%
10-yr Treasuries: 4.37%
Polls.
Real Clear Politics: Harris, 48.5%. Trump, 48.5%.
538: Harris, 47.9%. Trump, 46.9%.
Prediction markets.
Polymarket: Harris, 42.4%. Trump, 57.7%.
Kalshi: Harris, 46.0%. Trump, 54.0%
Alton Drew
4 November 2024
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 