Kamala Harris’ San Francisco posse needs to be replaced as evidenced by her interview just three hours ago with Fox News’ chief political anchor Bret Baier. There were at least three periods of contention during the interview generated by Mr Baier’s need to get in as many questions as possible before a hard wrap by his producer and Ms. Harris’ desire to get in as many jabs against her opponent, former president Donald Trump.
Yes, I did say last week that Ms. Harris would be the recipient of my support, but it does not mean that I am going to avoid calling balls and strikes. Ms. Harris’ performance was more sister girl walks into a corporate boardroom interview than a fierce leader trying to convince an increasingly multiethnic country that she should be the standard bearer around which the nation-state should rally in times of need or celebration.
The irony is that Mr. Baier’s near incessant interruptions should have been used by Ms. Harris as moments to take a breath and regroup; to take us down a path for considering her assertions and arguments in more depth. Rather, we got the word salad that Mr. Baier was trying to steer the conversation away from. She lost an opportunity to allow America to get to know her by showing America how she thinks versus regurgitating a ten-point memo.
With 20 days to go to the general election, Ms. Harris has no time left for a persuasive closing argument. Maybe the markets sensed this as well.
This morning and early afternoon offered nothing to speak of in terms of market moving data. Morgan Stanley reported this morning that its profits had increased 32% and news out of the United Kingdom was that year-over-year inflation fell below two percent. Also, Israel announced it did not intend to attack Iranian oilfields. What other targets? We’ll see.
The events contract markets gave Donald Trump a boost earlier this morning. Polymarket gave Donald Trump a .595 probability of winning this November while PredictIt gave the Man from Queens a .54 probability of winning. Kalshi, another provider of events contracts, had Mr. Trump’s probability at .53.
Post interview, Mr Trump’s performance was relatively unchanged. While PredictIt showed Ms. Harris’ chances of winning moved from a probability of .50 to a probability of .51, Mr. Trump’s chances of winning dropped slightly to .53. Mr. Trump also fell in the Polymarket events market to a .585 probability compared to an uptick to .411 from .405 for Ms. Harris. Mr Trump still has a solid lead on the Kalshi exchange with a probability of winning coming in at .55 versus .45 for Ms. Harris.
The markets were as calm as the dearth of market information. My instincts tell me that market participants may have factored in a Trump win and that they will not start paying attention to politics again until the Federal Open Market Committee’s November 6th-7th rate setting meeting. The dollar index, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY remained relatively unchanged during the day.
Alton Drew
16 October 2024
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 