So, there was an interview of Donald Trump on X today? Sorry I missed it.

Elon Musk interviewed Republican presidential candidate Donald J. Trump today. It happened around the time of my daily walk, so I admit that the interview was not top of mind for me. I am guessing nothing different was said by the former president based on the lack of change in the buy price of a Trump victory in November. PredictIt reported a buy price of $.44 today for Mr. Trump, no change from yesterday’s price. Mr. Trump need not worry about any increase in the probability of a win by Vice President Harris. There was no change in the buy price of a Harris victory between yesterday and today. Her buy price is $.59.

There was also no change reported on Polymarket. The percentage chance of a Harris victory remains at 52% while the percentage chance of a Trump victory is still at 46%.

A scan of today’s news headlines did not turn up anything that piqued my fancy. Yahoo! News reported that the section of X where the interview was to take place apparently crashed for a while. This episode has provided people with an excuse to reminisce about Florida governor Ron DeSantis’ candidacy announcement on X which bombed and knocked him down the slippery slope of political irrelevance. Musk interview or not, we are still stuck with the Man from Queens through the November election.

As I may have pointed out before, specific policy proposals teased out during the Democratic National Convention and media interviews will move the prices on the prediction markets. In the meantime, we are still stuck with a Harris-Walz website that looks more like a digital plate that is passed round to collect tithes and offerings. No policy specific policy proposals have been laid out yet.

The biggest beef from Ms. Harris’ critics is that she hasn’t granted any sit-down interviews. Honestly, I rather focus on her actions along with that of Mr. Trump’s. What will matter is their direct actions toward the management of the political economy. Specifically, what will matter is how they manage the value of the currency. While under the U.S. Constitution, the Congress is responsible for managing the value of the currency, the day-to-day management is left up to the Treasury.

Why am I zeroing in on the currency? In my opinion, the currency is the connecting tissue of the political economy. Slowdowns in the economy are a result of not enough currency in the hands of the consumer. Slowed down spending leads to lower production and higher unemployment. From a statist view, it puts the validity of the government at risk. Slowed down production and reduced employment leads to lower tax revenues which in turn leads to a reduced ability of the political class to buy votes.

A poor political economy leads to a violation of the Drew State Maxim: Does this political action expand and maintain the State.

I think that this maxim is a reality that has not quite sunk in yet for Mr. Trump. Ever the marketer, Mr. Trump focuses too much on marketing himself versus marketing the State. Yes, he asserts at his rallies that he wants to make America great again, but America has never been about the populace and messaging should not be about the populace either. Messages aimed at the populace should be designed to get them to do for country. That usually means getting them to produce, consume, and pay taxes.

I do not believe that Ms. Harris understands this either. While her messaging has emphasized progressive issues such as childcare, eldercare, and promotion of labor, it does not promote production, consumption, and tax payment. Her policies may, at a minimum, paint a State that takes care of you, but her proposals do not speak to an expansion and maintenance of the State’s jurisdiction.

From a Statist perspective, neither of these candidates are viable. For example, a bondholder should be encouraged by Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris to buy Treasuries, but the messaging does not provide that spark.

Alton Drew

12 August 2024

For more of my take on the political economy, buy my book at amazon.com/author/altondrew.