PredictIt, the political events market, has Kamala Harris still ahead of Donald Trump. Vice-President Harris’ chances of winning the presidential election this November is priced at $.58 versus the $.44 price for a victory by former president Donald Trump.
Polymarket has the chances of a Harris victory at 52% while the chances of a Trump victory is at 45%. This is a major flip since August 2nd when Polymarket had the chance of a Kamala Harris victory at 44%.
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So far, the only recent change in Ms. Harris’ campaign narrative has been her announcement of Minnesota governor Tim Walz as her running mate. Beyond that, Ms. Harris’s campaign narrative has been centered on progressive social policies such as affordable healthcare, elder care, and childcare as well as promises to continue advocating for labor. I believe that Ms. Harris will not publish any specific policy positions until after the Democratic National Convention which begins on 19 August.
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Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University renown for his presidential election prediction model, has this race as Harris’ race to lose. Professor Lichtman’s model has 13 prediction keys. If a candidate is negative on six or more of those keys, their chance of winning is in jeopardy. According to Professor Lichtman if there is unrest at the Democratic National Convention, a foreign/military failure, or a negative reaction to a foreign/military success, Ms. Harris’ chances of victory will be diminished.
Critics of Ms. Harris have been clamoring for her to face the media during an interview. If an interview were to uncover unfavorable details over her policy positions or see her as unresponsive or providing unclear or weak responses to questions about her participation in policymaking as vice-president, I would expect a positive bump for Mr. Trump. However, consensus is that Mr. Trump already has his base secured and there may not be much more room left for expanding his base.
Also, how fickle are Ms. Harris’ supporters? Ms. Harris’ popularity last year around this time was on par with the low approval ratings received by President Biden. Ms. Harris is enjoying a climb in the preference department, but as her record is challenged, will enough of her initial supporters jump ship and numbers move back in favor to Mr. Trump?
Alton Drew
10 August 2024
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