The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 114,000 jobs were created in July 2024. That is a miss from the 175,000 added jobs estimated by the financial markets. Unemployment has ticked up to 4.3%, another miss from the consensus estimate of 4.1%. Most job growth occurred in the non-productive sectors of the economy, namely government, health care, and social services with a loss of 20,000 jobs in the information sector.
Prior to this report, PredictIt had a Harris election win priced at $.55 while a Trump election win was priced at $.49. On Polymarket, the prediction is reversed with election markets buying a Harris win at $.44 while buying a Trump win at $.54.
Bear in mind that this is just one data point, but it reflects the growing consensus in the markets that the economy is showing increasing signs of weakness.
As more uncertainty creeps into the markets, how will voters perceive Harris or Trump as stewards of the political economy?
Alton Drew
2 August 2024
For more of my take on the American political economy, buy my book at amazon.com/author/altondrew.
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 