In this video, some rich bros from the All-In Podcast are waxing philosophical about the likely positive impact a Trump presidency will have on markets including the equity and crypto markets. There is the usual narrative about how a lighter touch, deregulatory scheme will create growth in the markets as well as in economic output. … Continue reading Trump forgets that as head of state, he is responsible for expanding it.
Emphasizing democracy may have cost the Democrats the election. Doubling down on their narrative may lead to the final implosion of the party. Democracy creates a feedback loop where the electorate hears the political class’s (elite) narrative, analyzes it to determine its relatability, costs, and benefits, and disposes of it when the electorate determines that … Continue reading Democracy stunted the Democrats. You can’t sell meat to vegans.
As the dust settles from the 2024 presidential election and yesterday’s Federal Reserve 25-basis point cut in the federal funds rate, I have been thinking about how the Democratic Party missed the opportunity to win votes based on how many Americans view the economy. According to data compiled by Pew Research, in September 2024, 81% … Continue reading Redefining the term, “economy.”
Around 2:00 am this morning, it was projected that Donald J. Trump had secured enough potential Electoral College votes to be America’s 47th head of state. The official certification as president-elect will not occur until the middle of next month in the Electoral College with certification by the President of the Senate of the Electoral … Continue reading Today should mark America’s march toward a winning currency policy.
The 4:15 pm fix is in. According to the Federal Reserve’s data, two-year and ten-year yields have been inching up over the last week. Throw in a little dollar weakening compared to the euro. Given we are closer to the beginning of Election Day (14.5 hours at the time of this writing), could some political … Continue reading The fix is in. Yields inching higher. The polls tightening. Tomorrow night will be pizza and popcorn night.
It’s around 11:26 in the morning in Tokyo. Good morning. I am wishing Sydney an early good afternoon. It’s about 1:26 pm on your side of the world. Other than the Dallas Cowboys getting spanked by the San Francisco 49ers, there is nothing major to report. Wait a minute. There is an election to choose … Continue reading Good day, Australia and Japan. The American currency continues to strengthen …
NPR’s Ashley Lopez today published a piece discussing the possibility of neither Donald Trump or Kamala Harris receiving the required 270 votes from the Electoral College to be declared President-Elect. Ms. Lopez describes the process where if neither candidate receives the minimum 270 votes, then it would be up to at least 26 congressional delegations … Continue reading How should traders position themselves in a split political environment?
Kamala Harris’ San Francisco posse needs to be replaced as evidenced by her interview just three hours ago with Fox News’ chief political anchor Bret Baier. There were at least three periods of contention during the interview generated by Mr Baier’s need to get in as many questions as possible before a hard wrap by … Continue reading Fox News: The Kamala Harris interview did not move markets
Between 9:02 am and 11:26 am, the CME FedWatch tool reflected an increase in the chances that the Federal Open Market Committee would increase the federal funds target range by 50-basis points. Traders expect a 61% chance of a 50-point increase. Chances of a 25-point increase has slipped to 39% at the time of this … Continue reading Three U.S. senators recommend a 75-basis point cut in the fed funds rate.
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 