A ceasefire is not a peace deal and hostilities between Iran and Israel are merely on simmer. Two countries with so much animosity against each other are not going to kiss and make up after twelve days of bombing, strafing, and killing. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran announced today by U.S. President Donald J. … Continue reading US-Israel-Iran: Did Trump do Netanyahu and Khamenei a solid?
Calling Trump’s bluff … European and British banks have been and still are collateralizing Africa and Asia for centuries. Since the mid 1940s, the United States has been providing the military and mercenary duties necessary for protecting European and British extraction of resources from these areas of the world. (Ready to step up your trading … Continue reading I don’t think Trump wants to withdraw from the globe. Currency outlooks should reflect this.
What the binary options market looks like … As of 7:19 pm EST, the NADEX offered the following binary options contracts for the EUR/USD expiring this Friday (23 May 2025) at 3 pm: Contract closing above 1.1225. Buy at $9.50 Contract closing above 1.1175. Buy at $9.90 Contract closing above 1.1125. Buy at $7.70 I … Continue reading The dollar seeing losses into the Memorial Day weekend …
American traders have been showing their overall ignorance of politics in reaction to President Trump’s expressions of disgust with Jerome Powell’s approach to interbank rates. The chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System has long pushed back against threats from the President to dismiss Mr. Powell from the chairmanship. Caselaw found … Continue reading Imagining overnight rate volatility from a President’s involvement in rate setting. Scary. …1:01 PM AST
According to data from MarketWatch, the DOW, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq are up after 48 hours of onslaught of the markets. The price of gold and oil are also up as volatility measured by the VIX has decreased. I do not know how much of the turnaround is due to the reported 90-day pause … Continue reading Back to the Future: A quick post on mercantilism.
What we’re reading: U.S. Virgin Islands. VIPSC. Utilities. “The Virgin Islands Public Services Commission is preparing to launch a series of high-stakes investigations into the territory’s public utilities — while warning lawmakers Monday that chronic mismanagement, outdated infrastructure and nonpayment of regulatory assessments are threatening the commission’s ability to carry out its duties.” — St. … Continue reading U.S.-Eastern Caribbean interbank news scan as of 11:08 pm AST: USVI concerned about Trump impact on economy.
The takeaway The markets and the general public are sliding down the rabbit hole of bewilderment as President Trump’s “will I tariff or will I not” approach to America’s trading partners have introduced more uncertainty to US investors. In some ways, this is the fault of investors themselves. I shed no tears for investors who … Continue reading Currency, Interbank, and Money Market News Scan: Trump’s conservative approach to constitutional power makes him look expansive.
The takeaway: Will banks leave more money in their Federal Reserve bank vaults? Alejandro Riviera is upset today. He needs $200,000 per year in income in order to enjoy retirement with his wife, Anita, and the dog, Puff. Last week, with the two-year rate at 3.99%, Alejandro needed a portfolio of $5,012,531 to generate his … Continue reading Currency and money markets news scan: Will banks leave more money in their Federal Reserve bank vaults?
The takeaway: Trump wants a balanced budget, but half the work is already done. 15 USC § 3101(b)(2) lists as one of the goals for economic growth a balanced budget. Specifically, the section reads: “(2) Aggregate monetary and fiscal policies alone have been unable to achieve full employment and production, increased real income, balanced growth, … Continue reading Currency and money markets news scan: Trump wants to reverse an “inflation catastrophe.”
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 