As a binary options trader, I don’t care about cuts in the federal funds rate outside of where an announcement moves the price of the EUR/USD in the short term. But as someone who has to work for a living and is in need of a boost to their capital, a lowered rate of interest … Continue reading Am I pleased with the EUR/USD?
Over the weekend, I spoke to my contacts in the banking industry trying to get a feel for banker sentiments on the Fed’s interest rate policy. The sentiments boiled down to the banks taking whatever the Fed decides in stride. As one contact put it, it’s about the money and the banks will take what … Continue reading Could it be more about where the banks want to go versus where traders think the Fed wants to go?
The EUR/USD closed at 10:00 am at 1.16001. By 11:00 am, it closed at 1.17181. I thought his speech was a rehash of testimony he would have provided to Congress. The “nothing to see hear” nature of it told me that he would try to garner consensus of the rest of the Board members to … Continue reading Powell speech drives up EUR/USD …
There is ongoing concern of a threat by the Executive Branch to the independence of the Federal Reserve System, specifically influence by the Executive Office of the President on the decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee on monetary policy. I do not think the issue is political threats to the independence of the … Continue reading It is less about political interference with the Fed and more about the degree of interference.
From my events contracts trading desk … As we get closer to the meeting tomorrow between Russian president Vladimir Putin and US president Donald J. Trump, the euro tapered off some of the strengthening I saw from around 4:00 am this morning. The EUR/USD was at 1.16686 and by the close of the 6 am … Continue reading A quiet day at the CFTC and in the markets as well …
August 07, 2025 WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Division of Market Oversight and the Division of Clearing and Risk today announced they have taken a no-action position regarding swap data reporting and recordkeeping regulations for event contracts in response to a request from the Railbird Exchange, LLC, a designated contract market, and QC … Continue reading CFTC Staff Issues No-Action Letter Regarding Event Contracts
From my trading desk: A little dollar strengthening from 5:00 am to 9:00 am, then … From 5:00 am to 9:00 am, I saw dollar strengthening based on the decreasing price of the EUR/USD as reported on the NADEX. The price went from 1.15424 to 1.15354. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its balance … Continue reading Time to discount effects of Trump’s call for a Powell removal on EUR/USD
From the trading desk … A slow day for me on the NADEX. This morning, I bought the EUR/USD > 1.1540 that expired at 3 pm today and sold the EUR/USD > 1.1640 that also expired at 3pm today. Price at expiration was 1.15645. Markets were still digesting the May and June downward revision of … Continue reading As America gets over last week’s payrolls number, Kalshiex sees a legal setback …
Reuters today posted yet another call by U.S. President Donald Trump for Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee to lower the target range for the federal funds rate. The target range for the federal funds rate is currently between 4.25% and 4.50%. The federal funds rate is a weighted average of the … Continue reading Trump’s call on Powell to lower benchmark rates has no impact on direction of foreign exchange rates.
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 