From the trading desk … A slow day for me on the NADEX. This morning, I bought the EUR/USD > 1.1540 that expired at 3 pm today and sold the EUR/USD > 1.1640 that also expired at 3pm today. Price at expiration was 1.15645. Markets were still digesting the May and June downward revision of … Continue reading As America gets over last week’s payrolls number, Kalshiex sees a legal setback …
Reuters today posted yet another call by U.S. President Donald Trump for Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee to lower the target range for the federal funds rate. The target range for the federal funds rate is currently between 4.25% and 4.50%. The federal funds rate is a weighted average of the … Continue reading Trump’s call on Powell to lower benchmark rates has no impact on direction of foreign exchange rates.
From my trading desk … FX Street is reporting today that traders of the EUR/USD should expect continued slides in the euro. I concur in their assessment given what I saw in the charts on the NADEX from 10:00 am yesterday morning to 11:00 pm that evening. The EUR/USD went from a close of 1.16375 … Continue reading Trump’s poorly played short term currency policy exposes Europe’s long term currency complacency …
The EUR/USD started a fall from 1.17284 around 6:00 am EDT this morning to 1.16798 at 10:00 am EDT. I must have missed something news wise that occurred outside of speeches made by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco president Mary Daly and Federal Reserve Board governor Christopher Waller. There was not much in terms … Continue reading EUR/USD clawing its way back up to 1.1700 … clawing.
12 USC Sec. 242 says the following about the eligibility, selection, and removal of a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. Hold tight. It’s a mouthful: “The members of the Board shall be ineligible during the time they are in office and for two years thereafter to hold any office, position, … Continue reading Legal risks: Trump is getting the weakened dollar he wants. Does he have cause for removing Powell?
When trading binary options, I am trading my expectations on certain events. I am entering contracts where one side of the contract has an expectation of some event, x, occurring and the other side of the contract has an expectation of some event, y, occurring. I am not trading a commodity, share, or currency. I … Continue reading Binary options: Mitigating risks from information barriers in the foreign exchange markets.
Are markets valid? Lately I have been questioning the validity of markets, specifically whether markets are the result of organic interactions between humans or whether markets are State-constructed funnels for moving portions of monetary energy from consumers to the government via taxes. I have to be mindful that markets are not some linear, mechanical construct … Continue reading Why should you care about what others are betting in the markets?
I am going to start paying more attention to the Global South. I flirted with what is happening in the Caribbean and Africa regarding their currencies and central banks and it is time to do so again. Granted, their currencies are considered by the west to be “exotic” pairs, but you cannot ignore the shifts we are seeing particularly on the Continent. Continue reading Binary options: Eyes on the Global South. Not too surprised about last night’s EUR/USD close.
The Federal Reserve as narrative promoter … While not a political organization, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System as an agent of the Congress, is responsible for crafting a narrative around the soundness of the United States currency. The centerpiece of the soundness narrative is found in 12 USC 225(a) where Congress … Continue reading Federal Reserve: Is understanding the Fed that difficult or even useful?
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 