The bet … Over the weekend, I estimated the EUR/USD would be 1.1380 on Friday 2 May 2025. As of 10:27 pm AST, the spot rate is 1.1350, citing data from x-rates.com. Using the European Central Bank short-term rate of 2.169% and the U.S. 4-week Treasury rate of 4.23% as reported by the Federal Reserve … Continue reading Will the EUR/USD to be at 1.1380 on Friday? Will that change at mid-week?
Kugler speech missed the mark … On 22 April 2025, Federal Reserve Board governor Adriana D. Kugler gave a speech on the transmission of monetary policy through the economy. Governor Kugler explained how the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) manages monetary policy by adjusting the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks make uncollateralized … Continue reading What Governor Kugler’s speech missed yesterday…
Political power is about keeping the electorate in a state of belief. It is not about getting the electorate to a place of individual knowing and understanding. Individuals who know and understand have overcome fear and confronted the monster of scarcity that is spawned by our psyche. By arguing scarcity, power creates the idea that … Continue reading Traders should understand political narrative is about keeping you in a state of belief.
A Reuters article posted earlier last week discussed China’s desire to open up its exchange traded funds to Western market makers. The article mentions Citadel, an alternative investment manager, and Jane Street, a trading firm. According to Reuters: “Over the last two years, Chinese authorities have issued more licences (sic) and encouraged the development of … Continue reading Western banks doing business in China tells me there won’t be a kinetic war anytime soon.
According to data from MarketWatch, the DOW, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq are up after 48 hours of onslaught of the markets. The price of gold and oil are also up as volatility measured by the VIX has decreased. I do not know how much of the turnaround is due to the reported 90-day pause … Continue reading Back to the Future: A quick post on mercantilism.
We are in a do-it-yourself world. More people will be interested in managing their own wealth which will include trading on their own. The middleman brokers will have to shift to providing insights versus mechanical services like opening accounts and creating churn by offering new products. I have grown suspect of the narrative that middlemen … Continue reading Trading: How to cut out the noise in a DIY world.
For the past couple of years, I have been listening to the debate between the gold bugs and the crypto bros. After listening to the arguments, I came up with my own definition of money which I may have shared in the past. Money is energy plus sweat plus output. It is sound money where … Continue reading Are gold and crypto energy?
What we are reading … U.S. Treasury. Michael Faulkender. “Yesterday, the United States Senate confirmed Michael Faulkender to be the Deputy Secretary of the United States Department of the Treasury.” — U.S. Department of the Treasury. Note: Deputy Secretary Faulkender spent almost 17 years in academia, according to his LinkedIn profile. He also spent three … Continue reading U.S.-Eastern Caribbean Interbank Market News Scan as of 1:39 pm AST: Is the PCE index keeping hindering progress to two-percent target?
What we are reading today … White House. Venezuela. Tariffs. “On or after April 2, 2025, a tariff of 25 percent may be imposed on all goods imported into the United States from any country that imports Venezuelan oil, whether directly from Venezuela or indirectly through third parties. Duties imposed by this order will be … Continue reading U.S.-Eastern Caribbean Interbank Market News Scan as of 11:00 am AST: Trump’s tariffs on Venezuela appears to have little impact on the Eastern Caribbean; European money supply increases.
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 