Category: traders

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The dollar weakens in the face of a UK-EU defense and trade reset. A credit downgrade did not help.

As of 8:05 am EST, the NADEX offered the following binary options contracts for the EUR/USD expiring this Friday (23 May 2025) at 3 pm: Contract closing above 1.1225. Buy at $6.90 Contract closing above 1.1175. Buy at $8.40 Contract closing above 1.1125. Buy at $9.20 Contract closing above 1.1075. Buy at $9.90 Contract closing … Continue reading The dollar weakens in the face of a UK-EU defense and trade reset. A credit downgrade did not help.

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The Interbank Market: Dollar strengthens; the CFTC loses a commissioner.

The data as of 4:15 pm EST … Investing.com has calculated a forward rate contract price for EUR/USD on 16 May 2025 at 1.1205. That compares with my back of the napkin forward rate calculation of EUR/USD=1.1210 on Friday. The NADEX is pricing the probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1225 at $3.10. This represents a decrease … Continue reading The Interbank Market: Dollar strengthens; the CFTC loses a commissioner.

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The Interbank Markets: Will ECB seek other sources of dollar funding?

The data as of 11:32 EST … Investing.com has calculated a forward rate contract price for EUR/USD on 16 May 2025 at 1.1205. That compares with my back of the napkin forward rate calculation of EUR/USD=1.1210 on Friday. The NADEX is pricing the probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1225 at $4.50. At 11:00 am, Reuters priced … Continue reading The Interbank Markets: Will ECB seek other sources of dollar funding?

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Banks won this morning …

The takeaway: Be mindful of the information flow … Banks won this morning at 11:00. I calculated a forward delivery EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.1240 and expected a close at that time of above 1.1200, but the China-US decision to reduce tariff rates for 90 days gave the markets a boost. That boost strengthened demand … Continue reading Banks won this morning …

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Pre-arranged trade. It’s about keeping risk in the market.

What is a pre-arranged trade? Whether you are a retail trader or a professional market maker or broker, a trader has to stay mindful when protecting herself from what appears to be market manipulation and a market maker should avoid engaging in activities that unintentionally causes him to manipulate prices. Among activities that can impact … Continue reading Pre-arranged trade. It’s about keeping risk in the market.

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The markets: It’s the exploding froth on the water that gives real information.

The Middle Class may serve two masters … Real estate analyst Melody Wright made an observation today on the Julia La Roche Show that is in line with my thinking over the past few months. This economy, she noted, is becoming one where labor services the rich or the less fortunate. Restaurants, financial services, etc., … Continue reading The markets: It’s the exploding froth on the water that gives real information.

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Investor protection: Why a trader should be wary of her broker’s knowledge of the economy.

I just finished reading an article written by David Kelly, chief global strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. In the article, Dr. Kelly shares his thoughts on what he describes as “the delicate health of the economic expansion.” Dr. Kelly estimates that gross domestic production may be viewed as stagnant based on GDP numbers due … Continue reading Investor protection: Why a trader should be wary of her broker’s knowledge of the economy.