With all the talk of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa going their own way by moving away from the USD, the presumptive president-elect seeking a weaker dollar that promotes the export of goods manufactured in the United States, and a downward trend in foreign direct investment inflows to the United States, it would … Continue reading If FDI inflows are trending down, shouldn’t price of USD follow?
All is quiet as the U.S. prepares for Christmas along with the rest of the Anglo world. Last week I expected the EUR/USD to close above 1.0275 and it did at 1.0494. The current spot rate at 6:11 pm EST is 1.04412. I see one NADEX contract expiring on Friday at 3:00 pm with a … Continue reading I expect the EUR/USD to fall between 1.0288 and 1.0401. Also, Elon needs to tamp it down.
Narrative. Perception. Sentiment. That is what I saw tonight in play after the Bank of Japan released its statement on monetary policy. The USD/JPY was trading today around 153.786 at 1:00 pm EST. At 2:00 pm EST, when the Federal Open Market Committee released its statement, the yen had fallen, reflected in a USD/JPY of … Continue reading Narrative. Perception. Sentiment. And the dollar continues to strengthen against the yen.
The Bank of Japan decided to keep its target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate at 0.25% and its deposit facility rate also at 0.25%. The uncollateralized call rate is similar to the Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate while the deposit facility rate resembles the Fed’s interest on reserve balances rate. Japan’s consumer price index … Continue reading And the Bank of Japan has spoken …
The Bank of Japan is set to release its monetary policy statement sometime tonight. The Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to cut the range for the interbank overnight lending fee (fed funds rate) and the interest rate it pays on reserves left on deposit with the Fed by 25 basis points. The cut was expected … Continue reading The markets are waiting on Japan
NADEX, a binary options exchange platform, has an events contract posted with a buy price of $.98 on the EUR/USD exceeding 1.0275 by the end of this coming week. Assuming the Federal Open Market Committee does not make any changes to the federal funds rate, discount window, and interest on reserve balances, I estimate that … Continue reading I see EUR/USD exceeding 1.0275 by this Friday
The expansion of the BRICS alliance has been happening without any noticeable concern by the outgoing Biden-Harris administration. I heard no mention of BRICS by former Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris during her 2024 campaign. As potential de jure head of state, one would think that both her and the presumptive president-elect, Donald Trump, would … Continue reading Trump to the BRICS: “Don’t muscle in on my currency turf.”
Liquidity Foreign exchange, algorithmic trading, volatility. Financial markets have become more susceptible to liquidity shortages with the rise of algorithmic trading and increased market fragmentation, according to the Bank for International Settlements. Foreign-exchange trading, meanwhile, proved more resilient potentially due to measures taken to curb unwanted behavior from high-frequency traders. Yahoo!Finance. Excess liquidity. Thailand’s banking … Continue reading The Interbank Market: The Ghanaian cedi continues its appreciation against the dollar.
Nigeria, naira, foreign exchange. The Central Bank of Nigeria has issued fresh guidelines for interbank foreign exchange trading via the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System, mandating a minimum trade value of $100,000. The directive, dated 25 November 2024 and signed by Dr Omolara Duke, CBN’s Director of the Financial Markets Department, is part of efforts … Continue reading The Interbank Markets: From Trump effect to the Trump hedge.
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 