Category: interbank market

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Traders should not care whether a candidate is Republican or Democrat. It’s the tax flow that matters.

People connect for the purpose of exchanging value. No value, no reason to connect. Money is energy that we exchange with each other. The State seeks to extract a portion of that energy in the form of taxes. It uses market transactions as generators of taxable events. The taxes collected on these events fund the … Continue reading Traders should not care whether a candidate is Republican or Democrat. It’s the tax flow that matters.

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Should traders pray for state intervention in foreign exchange markets?

If I am assessing the probability of the exchange rate of a currency pair exceeding a certain price at a certain time, that expectation is going to be based, in part, on what government action may or may not occur. For all the anti-intervention chatter we hear from asset managers all over mainstream and social media, going through the following back-of-the napkin exercise has brought me to a contrarian view. Maybe some of these asset managers would like to see some kind of government action that creates profits for them. Continue reading Should traders pray for state intervention in foreign exchange markets?

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I have come to see that trading is the skill we need going forward into the 21st century …

The deluge of information makes it harder for we old heads to process info much less younger minds who are, unfortunately, not the greatest of critical thinkers. This need to vet leads to the second piece of insight: seek out platforms that can help you get to clarity. Continue reading I have come to see that trading is the skill we need going forward into the 21st century …

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I heard you should trade like a central bank. Let’s see what the Federal Reserve trading desks are waking up to on 5 September 2023.

The old adage is that 99% of retail traders fail. I believe that we are failing because we are not good at obtaining and trading the most valuable commodity: information and knowledge. That failure is compounded when we push up against the hourglass of time. Continue reading I heard you should trade like a central bank. Let’s see what the Federal Reserve trading desks are waking up to on 5 September 2023.

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10 and 30-year yields tick down, according to Federal Reserve data. We’ve been here before. 11:11 pm EST, 30 August 2023.

Fed Funds Futures. 30-Day Federal Funds Futures rate=94.57 Source: CME Group. Federal Reserve Reference Rates. Discount window rate=5.50% Interest on reserve balances=5.40% Effective federal funds rate=5.33% Overnight reverse repo rate=5.30% Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Treasurys. 30-year rate=4.23% 10-year rate=4.12% Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. … Continue reading 10 and 30-year yields tick down, according to Federal Reserve data. We’ve been here before. 11:11 pm EST, 30 August 2023.

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What interest rates are staring back at the Federal Reserve. 12:26 am EST 30 August 2023.

Fed Funds Futures. 30-Day Federal Funds Futures rate=94.56 Source: CME Group. Federal Reserve Reference Rates. Discount window rate=5.50% Interest on reserve balances=5.40% Effective federal funds rate=5.33% Overnight reverse repo rate=5.30% Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Treasurys. 30-year rate=4.29% 10-year rate=4.20% Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. … Continue reading What interest rates are staring back at the Federal Reserve. 12:26 am EST 30 August 2023.