The markets are looking forward to a reduction in less than two weeks in the federal funds target rate. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 59% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points. This means that the overnight rate target range … Continue reading Shouldn’t weak jobs numbers from Labor and ADP result in higher rated debt?
This is a crazy sounding observation, but the Democrats may do best on the economy because of their preference for a high tax regime. I am not a proponent of the modern monetary theory or high taxes. I am not a proponent of taxes at all, but there is something to the MMT argument that … Continue reading Maybe the Democrats do best on the markets because they enjoy taxing us.
So, a trader is sitting on a portfolio valued at USD1 million. Thirty percent of the portfolio is allocated to Treasurys; 25% to equities; 25% to gold; and 20% to real estate. They turn on their televisions and listen to an asset manager hustling her book that inflation is going to further whittle away at … Continue reading Connecting portfolio management to the Fed
Time Range Change in Money Supply Change in Personal Consumption Expenditure Change in Effective Federal Funds Rate January 2023 to January 2024 +9.66% +2.5% +23.09% February 2023 to February 2024 +10.81% +2.5% +16.63% March 2023 to March 2024 +5.59% +2.7% +10.35% April 2023 to April 2024 +3.26% +2.7% +10.35% May 2023 to May 2024 +2.79% … Continue reading Nationalist versus globalist. An activist investor treatment of government.
Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Foreign exchange rates: USD/XCD=2.7000 EUR/XCD=2.8881 GBP/XCD=3.4127 Monetary policy tools: Discount rate: 3.0% Call rate: 2.4% Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank. Government of St. Kitts and Nevis 45 Year Government Bond. Maturity Date: 18 April 2057. Interest rate: 1.50%. 20 Year Government Bond. Maturity Date: 18 April 2032. Interest rate: 3.00% Source: … Continue reading Eastern Caribbean Central Bank and St. Kitts-Nevis commercial bank rates as of 2:39 pm AST
Today, Federal Reserve System governor Adriana D. Kugler reiterated in remarks what we have been hearing from other Federal Reserve Board members: that inflation is still too high, even given the progress on lowering it. Governor Kugler pointed out that inflation is moving down slowly and that easing rates is possible later this year. Like … Continue reading Interbank market news scan: Kugler continues the Fed Speak on inflation.
Effective Federal Funds Rate: 5.33% Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 5.32% Secured Overnight Financing Rate: 5.31% Broad General Collateral Rate: 5.30% Tri-Party General Collateral Rate: 5.30% Interest on Reserve Balances: 5.40% Discount Window: 5.50% EUR/USD=7.8118 USD/JPY=157.2800 GBP/USD=1.2685 AUD/USD=0.6617 Sources: Board of Governors-Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Continue reading Retail foreign exchange dealer news scan: Federal Reserve administered and referenced rates as of 8:00 pm EST.
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective. The … Continue reading Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
The world has risk-laden problems to solve. Higher borrowing rates are indicia of higher risks to returns on capital, but the cries for lower rates do not appear to resonate with capital’s search for high returns that compensate for higher risks. If the Federal Reserve System is to meet its statutory dual mandate of stable … Continue reading Is it time for the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate?
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 