A ceasefire is not a peace deal and hostilities between Iran and Israel are merely on simmer. Two countries with so much animosity against each other are not going to kiss and make up after twelve days of bombing, strafing, and killing. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran announced today by U.S. President Donald J. … Continue reading US-Israel-Iran: Did Trump do Netanyahu and Khamenei a solid?
Michelle Bowman, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System’s vice-chair for supervision, will speak at 10:00 AM EDT at the International Journal of Central Banking conference in Prague. As vice-chair of supervision, Vice-Chair Bowman is responsible for the Board’s understanding of banks’ operations, banks’ major risks, how well banks manage these risks and … Continue reading Binary options: Miki Bowman speaks at 10:00 am today in the midst of intensified global risks …
The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain its target range for the effective federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%. The FOMC reiterated its intent to stay focused on the incoming data. This data would include information on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and expectations, as well as financial and international developments. What I … Continue reading Nothing surprising about the Fed’s decision. More surprises in FX at 2:00 pm.
Leave it to President Trump to cause a market mover in the EUR/USD yesterday when he shared that he was not in the mood to negotiate with Iran. According to FXStreet, a financial media publication, the President’s sentiments helped drive the EUR/USD below 1.1500 indicating a move to safe-haven assets including, ironically, the US dollar. … Continue reading U.S., Israel, and Iran: Yesterday’s 3pm EUR/USD expiry at 1.14794 took me for a loop.
Betting that the EUR/USD closes above 1.1520 by 3pm today seems like a very conservative bet. The spot around 4:20 am was 1.1582 and I calculated a forward price for tomorrow at 1.1860, so why so bloody conservative? In short, the events in Western Asia aka the Middle East are hard to ascertain in terms … Continue reading Binary options: My conservative bet on a EUR/USD close above 1.1520 by 3pm today.
When trading binary options, I am trading my expectations on certain events. I am entering contracts where one side of the contract has an expectation of some event, x, occurring and the other side of the contract has an expectation of some event, y, occurring. I am not trading a commodity, share, or currency. I … Continue reading Binary options: Mitigating risks from information barriers in the foreign exchange markets.
The primary question I ask myself when looking at a binary options contract for foreign exchange is, “Why would anyone buy euros using US dollars?” I had that question answered in part by the report on changes in U.S. consumer prices released half an hour ago by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. According to … Continue reading Binary options: NADEX contracts go dark at 8:30 am EDT. Inflation report looked most messy.
I bought a contract on the NADEX betting that the EUR/USD would close above 1.1360 earlier this afternoon at 3 pm. I would not have been surprised had the EUR/USD closed above 1.1380 but lately I have been hedging my bets by 17 to 25 pips. Honestly other than ascertaining the broker spread based on … Continue reading Binary options: The dollar continued its weakening against the euro.
Are markets valid? Lately I have been questioning the validity of markets, specifically whether markets are the result of organic interactions between humans or whether markets are State-constructed funnels for moving portions of monetary energy from consumers to the government via taxes. I have to be mindful that markets are not some linear, mechanical construct … Continue reading Why should you care about what others are betting in the markets?
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 