For merchants entering forward contracts for their international trade, they should keep in mind that markets, overall, are not too concerned about who wins the U.S. presidency, especially given the good odds that the Congress will be split and that whoever is chosen as Treasury secretary will likely maintain the U.S. policy of a strong dollar. Continue reading When it comes to inflation, those Europeans are violent …
Kamala Harris’ San Francisco posse needs to be replaced as evidenced by her interview just three hours ago with Fox News’ chief political anchor Bret Baier. There were at least three periods of contention during the interview generated by Mr Baier’s need to get in as many questions as possible before a hard wrap by … Continue reading Fox News: The Kamala Harris interview did not move markets
Should gross domestic product in part be a function of consumption? Professor Dave Collum argues that consumption is something you do after you have produced wealth; after you have produced something. My take on his position is that gross domestic product (output) would be equal to investment (capital) plus energy and effort. Expanding on Professor … Continue reading Taking a another look at defining gross domestic product.
Today, at 7:06 am EST, the EUR/USD was trading at 1.1094. This reflected a price decrease from the 1.1143 price from yesterday. My take on the euro is that there appears to be less demand for it, not only based on its price but on a consumer expectations survey from the European Central Bank last … Continue reading Israel v Iran: The foreign exchange market is telling me to cool it.
Miami, FL – SEPT 30, 2024 – Top Tier Trader, a leading name in the proprietary trading industry, is excited to announce that Jamal Hollingsworth, the company’s visionary founder, is returning to the role of CEO after a brief tenure as President. Hollingsworth’s return comes at a pivotal moment for the firm, solidifying TopTier Trader’s … Continue reading Jamal Hollingsworth Returns as CEO of Top Tier Trader, Poised to Lead the Company into an Exciting New Era
I don’t expect the EUR/USD to exceed 1.1168 by 3:00 pm Friday, 4 October 2024. My initial assessment is based on the German bund 10-year yield of 2.135% and a U.S. 10-year bond yield of 3.756%, per MarketWatch. Per X-rates.com, the current EUR/USD is 1.1166 as of 9:59 pm EST. (Interested in proprietary trading? Determine … Continue reading I don’t expect the EUR/USD to exceed 1.1168 by weekend. That could change, of course.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s July 2024 survey of primary dealers determined that a number of America’s largest banks expected the chances of a 50-basis point cut in the fed funds target rate to be around five percent. Today, according to the CME FedWatch tool, the chances of a 50-basis point decrease is … Continue reading So why is the market betting on a 50-basis point cut?
Between 9:02 am and 11:26 am, the CME FedWatch tool reflected an increase in the chances that the Federal Open Market Committee would increase the federal funds target range by 50-basis points. Traders expect a 61% chance of a 50-point increase. Chances of a 25-point increase has slipped to 39% at the time of this … Continue reading Three U.S. senators recommend a 75-basis point cut in the fed funds rate.
The CME FedWatch tool is reporting a 59% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the federal funds target range to 4.75%-5.00% from the current 5.25%-5.50% range. Business media has been reporting sentiment leaning toward a 25-basis point cut versus the sentiment reported in CME data. For traders, this should signal a bump … Continue reading The chances of a 50-basis point hike in fed funds rate higher than reported.
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 