A quiet day at the CFTC and in the markets as well …

From my events contracts trading desk …

As we get closer to the meeting tomorrow between Russian president Vladimir Putin and US president Donald J. Trump, the euro tapered off some of the strengthening I saw from around 4:00 am this morning. The EUR/USD was at 1.16686 and by the close of the 6 am block, the euro was hovering around 1.16953. By 9:00 am, the euro had taken a slide down to 1.16505.

What caused the slowdown in bullishness? A strong producer price index report for one thing. According to data reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, for the 12 months ended in July, the index for final demand increased by 3.3%. On a monthly basis, the index increased by 0.9%. Both estimates exceeded expectations.

The producer price index measures the changes in selling prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services. Like its sister index, the consumer price index, the producer price index is another benchmark for “inflation.”

I put the word “inflation” in parentheses to reflect my objection to how most people, especially the press, use the word. Change in price levels, whether consumer or producer prices, is the appropriate way to look at the consumer price or producer price index with inflation reserved for describing an increase in the money supply.

Either way, I anticipated that a fall in the producer price index would be met with an increase in demand for the euro, thus an increase in the rate for the EUR/USD. An increase in the producer price index would have had the opposite effect. The red candlesticks getting chubbier and longer at 8:30 am told me that the producer price index had come in higher than expected.

With no other major economic news coming in, I purchased the EUR/USD >1.1640 that expired today at 3 pm EDT. That contract expired at EUR/USD=1.16412.

From my law and policy desk …

Today appeared to be a slow day in terms of any court, CFTC, Federal Reserve, or Congressional action. This could change somewhat depending on what comes out of tomorrow’s peace summit in Anchorage, Alaska. I’ll be up working tonight to share any more thoughts.

Alton Drew

14 August 2025

If you have a legal concern surrounding your trading activity, contact me at altondrew@altondrew.com.

DISCLAIMER: The above post is provided for information purposes and should not be viewed as trading or legal advice. Trading is risky. Consult a trading advisor before starting your trading journey.