From my trade desk …
Yesterday, I had a brief conversation with my landlord about how tough it is in today’s labor market. I shared with him that my son had just left for graduate school up north. He shared his congratulations. I then shared with him how my son was one of the lucky recent college grads to have found some employment. My landlord seemed genuinely perplexed. A college grad having a hard time finding work?
A friend of mine, a banker, also seemed perplexed when I told her that although my son was working, he was working two part time jobs: one as a barista and the other as an instructor in an after-school program. She too seemed to find it odd that my son was not working a “professional” job.
Today’s jobs report should have made the message loud and clear that finding work has become a lot tougher not only for recent grads who are unemployed and thinking about employment outside of their majors or going back to grad school, but for we old and older heads who due to varying circumstances have to pound the pavement.
According to the jobs situation report released today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, approximately 73,000 people were added to non-farm payrolls in the month of July. This is significantly less than the expected addition of 110,000 workers. Also, likely an indication of people being let go from the workforce, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from the previous 4.1%.
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At times an uptick in the unemployment rate could indicate more individuals coming off the bench and entering the job search arena, but given that the labor participation rate ticked down, it is likely we are seeing the recently unemployed heading for the locker rooms.
Last night around 11:00 pm and with the EUR/USD hovering around 1.14180, I figured something drastic in the payroll numbers would have to occur if the EUR/USD was to exceed 1.1475 by 3 pm as I had calculated back on Wednesday. By 8:42 am this morning I could tell that the markets were not showing a lot of confidence that the Trump economy could handle any potential benefits anticipated from the recent trade deal with the European Union.
In my opinion, if the idea is to protect and promote U.S. manufacturing capacity, you will have to hire people that do more than provide health care or social assistance. The United States will have to persuade the “I am 24 and want better work-life balance” posse to pursue employment in the trades and right now I do not see that happening.
While anything can happen between now and 3pm, the support levels estimated by the analysts over at FXStreet (EUR/USD=1.1400, 1.1360 and 1.1325) may be well exceeded. As for the resistance levels calculated by FXStreet, (EUR/USD=1.1470, 1.1510, 1.1555), these levels are being tested and, in some cases, breached. At 10:06 am, the EUR/USD read 1.15649. I will hold on to this contract for now taking another look around 11:00 am when the London market closes.
From my legal desk …
Nothing to report now. Check back around 11:00 pm.
Alton Drew
1 August 2025
For a legal analysis of events discussed in this post, contact me at altondrew@altondrew.com to reserve a consult and legal memo.
Disclaimer: The above post is for informational purposes and does not amount to legal or trading advice. Trading is risky. Before beginning your trading journey, please consult a professional trading advisor.
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