From the trading desk …
On the eve of the 1 August deadline for U.S. trading partners to get in line with President Trump’s trade policies, the EUR/USD continues its slide toward 1.1400. Investors are still upbeat about gross domestic product in the second quarter 2025 and the 104,000 job pick up reported yesterday by ADP.
The EUR/USD is trading at its lowest, according to a report by FXStreet. FXStreet observed support levels for the EUR/USD of 1.1470, 1.1360, and 1.1325. Resistance levels were estimated at 1.1470, 1.1510, and 1.1555.
The EUR/USD refers to how many euros one US dollar can buy. So, an exchange rate for EUR/USD of 1.1411 means that one euro can be purchased for $1.1411. When we refer to resistance and support levels, these are areas where the exchange rates see a potential bottom (support) and a potential top (resistance).
Meanwhile, Reuters is observing that the US dollar is experiencing its first monthly rise of 2025. Investors are apparently psyched by what they believe to be a resilient economy. Europe continues to pay the price for its recent trade deal with the United States as investors are reportedly unwinding their bets in Europe while continuing to question the EU-US trade deal.
It does not help Europe’s side of the trade that today’s data releases from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis are apparently upbeat on American personal income and worker compensation.
Personal income increased, according to the BEA, by 0.3% in the month of June. Also increasing at that rate in the month of June were disposable income and personal consumption expenditures.
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The Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, increased 2.6% over the 12-month period ending in June 2025. This is above the Federal Reserve’s inflation rate target of 2% and adds another argument for maintaining the fed funds rate within the current range of 4.25% and 4.50%.
Compensation and wage data, per the BLS, looked good at least on the surface. While compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6% for the 12-month period ending June 2025, wages and salaries increased by 3.5% during the same period. These compensation and wage increases are greater than the 2.7% increase in the consumer price index or 2.7% increase in the PCE.
From my short-term betting perspective, I do not expect the EUR/USD to exceed 1.1480 by 3pm today.
Alton Drew
31 July 2025
From the legal desk …
NFA orders New Jersey-based introducing broker Traders Edge Inc. to withdraw from and not reapply for NFA membership
July 30, Chicago—NFA has ordered Traders Edge Inc. (Traders Edge), an NFA Member introducing broker located in Madison, N.J., to withdraw from, and not reapply for, NFA membership.
The Decision, issued by an NFA Hearing Panel, is based on a Complaint issued by NFA’s Business Conduct Committee and a settlement offer submitted by Traders Edge, in which it neither admitted nor denied the allegations. The Complaint alleged that Traders Edge’s website displayed misleading and deceptive trading results that were not presented net of commissions and fees and included discussions about profit that were not accompanied by an equally prominent discussion of the risk of loss, in violation of NFA Compliance Rules 2-29(b)(1), 2-29(b)(3) and 2-29(b)(5). The Complaint also alleged that Traders Edge (through its employees) engaged in misleading and deceptive sales solicitations, in violation of NFA Compliance Rules 2-2(a) and 2-29(a)(1). Further, the Complaint alleged that Traders Edge failed to adequately disclose fees to customers prior to the commencement of trading, in violation of NFA Compliance Rule 2-4. Lastly, the Complaint alleged that Traders Edge failed to diligently supervise the firm’s operations and employees, in violation of NFA Compliance Rule 2-9(a).
In its Decision, the Hearing Panel found that Traders Edge violated NFA Compliance Rules 2-2(a), 2-4, 2-9(a), 2-29(a)(1), 2-29(b)(1), 2-29(b)(3) and 2-29(b)(5).
The complete text of the Complaint and Decision can be viewed on NFA’s website.
Source: National Futures Association
For a legal analysis of these events, contact me at altondrew@altondrew.com.
Disclaimer: This post is not offering trading advice, nor does it establish a contract for legal services. This post is provided for informational purposes only. Trading involves risk. Please contact a professional trading advisor before embarking on your trading journey.
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