From my trading desk …
FX Street is reporting today that traders of the EUR/USD should expect continued slides in the euro. I concur in their assessment given what I saw in the charts on the NADEX from 10:00 am yesterday morning to 11:00 pm that evening. The EUR/USD went from a close of 1.16375 around 10:00 am to a close of 1.15831 around 11:00 pm.
While FX Street assessed on Monday support for the EUR/USD starting at 1.1640 and declining to 1.1600, or 1.1555, I calculated support for the EUR/USD between 1.1560 and 1.1580.
Resistance to growth in the EUR/USD exchange rate estimated by FX Street is at 1.1695, 1.1740, or 1.1785. Based on the FX Street assessment and what I am seeing on the NADEX, I decided to sell the EUR/USD > 1.1640 expiring this afternoon at 3 pm.
With nothing else to speculate about prior to tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting on monetary policy, the financial media has been piling on Europe’s acceptance of a 15% tariff on particular EU exports combined with a pledge to invest $600 billion in the United States.
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A number of analysts consider the EU-USD deal as weighing heavily in the favor of the United States. The US gets tariff cash added to its government coffers, and the US private sector gets some more money from Europe. In my opinion, it shows the lack of leverage the Europeans have. It’s time to call out their waning prestige. A currency union bloc that depends on Eastern Europe, Asia, and Africa for natural resources ranging from coffee, tea, rare earth materials, cocoa, and cobalt, in addition to security from the United States, is really in no position to demand anything.
Is this lack of leverage showing up in the EUR/USD? Around 7:42 am I saw downward pressure on the euro where price fell to 1.15407.
From my legal desk …
Nothing of substance (yet) for this morning. For the next two days, the Federal Open Market Committee will carry out its open market operations described in 12 USC section 263, ; 12 USC section 248 (b), and 12 USC sections 253 to 359.
Open market operations refer to the sale and purchase of securities in the open market. Open market operations are the responsibility of the Federal Open Market Committee.
The Federal Open Market Committee is made up of all seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and five presidents of the 12 federal reserve district banks. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is a permanent member of the FOMC while the other four bank heads serve on the FOMC for one year before rotating off of the Committee.
Alton Drew
29 July 2025
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Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 