According to a report in Reuters, France intends to recognize a Palestinian state during the United Nations General Assembly this September. Reuters quotes France’s president Emmanuel Macron as saying, “True to its historic commitment to a just and lasting peace in the Middle East, I have decided that France will recognise the state of Palestine.”
So far, the movement toward a two-state solution has been pushed by smaller nations. Canada’s prime minister, Mark Carney, is cited by Reuters as not only pushing for a peaceful resolution of Israel’s police action in Gaza but reiterating Canada’s preference for a two-state solution to the conflict between Palestine and Israel.
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My initial instinct about Mr. Macron’s announcement was that France does not make foreign policy moves from a place of altruism. The cynic in me sees Macron and the French state taking advantage of Israel clearing out Gaza’s infrastructure making it available to bidders at a discount. France, given its expertise in colonialism, could contribute to the installation of a puppet state in Palestine dressed in all the veneer of independence. You have to follow the money.
On the flip side, given that Manny Macron put this proposal into the public ether, it is likely a tactical move toward an enhanced strategic position in the Middle East. He may be seeking something else, another factor that contributes to France’s international financial and economic self-interest.
Mr. Macron’s policy initiative may be a longer-term play to make France the primary leader of Europe’s transmission of narrative toward the rest of the planet.
In reality, the only move those of us have outside the walled garden of information and state affairs is to play the price movements spawned by these geopolitical events and hedge their moderate and long-term impacts.
As of 9:49 am, the EUR/USD was at 1.17124. Around the time Reuters released its report, the EUR/USD was at 1.17543. I won’t go as far as saying that Mr. Macron’s announcement was the cause of the price movement, but the price movement appears correlated to the news.
Alton Drew
25 July 2025
For a legal analysis of this event, contact me at altondrew@altondrew.com to set up an appointment.
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