Binary options: Did Trump’s tariff letters upset the EUR/USD?

I bought a EUR/USD contract speculating on a close above 1.1700 by 11 am this morning. At 11:00 am, the EUR/USD price at expiration was 1.17385.

Tariff uncertainty dominated the media scuttlebutt as markets kept all eyes on President Trump’s letter writing campaign. According to CBS News, Mr. Trump was to send tariff increase letters to countries with which the United States had not yet reached satisfactory trade arrangements. Mr. Trump paused his reciprocal tariff rates until 9 July. The tariff rates are to go into effect on 1 August.

Some of the countries in the line-of-sight of Mr. Trump’s ire are Bangladesh, Bosnia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Serbia, Thailand, and Tunisia. Not exactly countries that sit in the top ten of trading partners of the United States.

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This morning’s wait and see about tariffs and tariff letters was a reminder of how important it is to ignore the noise. As a political nerd it can be tempting to spend long minutes wasting brain cells on the tit-for-tat the Executive branch may be having with the Legislative branch. The energy American political actors expend on the facade of democratic representation is annoying to the point where I have tapped out of any political discussion that does not have an impact on interest rates and the US dollar.

As further example of my mild frustration, I received a letter from my congressman who happens to be on the House Financial Services Committee. It took her awhile to get back to me, but she wrote me a letter of a decent length, long enough to not seem like a brush off letter, but given its content and substance, it was likely a canned letter. My questions were focused on monetary policy. Unfortunately, the answers came nowhere close to monetary policy. I had hopes for this congressman. The hopes are dashed.

The EUR/USD as of 10:24 pm EDT is at 1.17448. The dollar is continuing its expected weakening. I have calculated a forward rate of 1.1775 for this Friday. No major data releases are scheduled in the US this week. The CPI reading for June is scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on 15 July while the next release of the personal consumption expenditure by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled for 31 July.

The Federal Open Market Committee holds its two-day meeting July 29-30 where it is expected to hold the range for the interbank overnight lending rate (fed funds rate) between 4.25% and 4.50%.

It’s only Monday evening here on the east coast. I am open to surprises. I do expect market rumbling on July 9th when the hold on tariffs is lifted, and we march toward the 1 August effective date. Silence here in the states means keeping an eye on Europe. There are two-sides to the EUR/USD.

Sometime tomorrow morning I will decide which weekly contract to buy on the NADEX.

Alton Drew

7 July 2025

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