I expected a close last night of the EUR/USD greater than 1.1403. I also gleaned some guidance from the bid-ask prices shared by OANDA which had the bid on the EUR/USD at 1.1423 and the ask at 1.1424.
I bought a contract on the NADEX at $8.30 predicting the EUR/USD to close at 11:00 pm above 1.1380. The price at expiration was 1.14254.
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The trade journals were also expecting a close above 1.1400 given the broad-based weakness in the US dollar and re-escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. Investors, according to the trade journals, were also expressing concerns about the upcoming release of the U.S. jobs report and the impact the May numbers would have on a decision to keep money in the U.S. A shitty number would in theory drive up the EUR/USD relative to how well Europe may be doing in comparison.
A crappy unemployment number this coming Friday would, in my opinion, compound the less than bright data that came out of the Conference Board on yesterday. Their manufacturing index showed a contraction in production for a third straight month.
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In a couple hours, I will take a look at data and expectations for today. Meanwhile ….
I am going to start paying more attention to the Global South. I flirted with what is happening in the Caribbean and Africa regarding their currencies and central banks and it is time to do so again. Granted, their currencies are considered by the west to be “exotic” pairs, but you cannot ignore the shifts we are seeing particularly on the Continent.
Alton Drew
3 June 2025
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