The dollar weakens in the face of a UK-EU defense and trade reset. A credit downgrade did not help.

As of 8:05 am EST, the NADEX offered the following binary options contracts for the EUR/USD expiring this Friday (23 May 2025) at 3 pm:

Contract closing above 1.1225. Buy at $6.90

Contract closing above 1.1175. Buy at $8.40

Contract closing above 1.1125. Buy at $9.20

Contract closing above 1.1075. Buy at $9.90

Contract closing above 1.1025. Buy at $9.90

I calculated a forward price for EUR/USD for this Friday at $1.1277, an increase from the forward price I calculated earlier at 1.1183.

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The European Central Bank short term rate is at 2.172% while the Board of Governors-Federal Reserve System reports a 4-week rate of 4.23%.

Reuters reports dollar weakening in the face of the United Kingdom’s reset of its defense and trade relationship with the European Union. The reset combines with a blow from over the weekend that U.S. debt was downgraded by Moody’s as the rating agency shared concerns about the path of U.S. fiscal policy.

Alton Drew

19 May 2025

DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial adviser. These blog posts are for educational purposes only. Trading of any kind involves risk. Your trading decisions are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research and seek professional advice as necessary.

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