At 7:00 am EST, EUR/USD opened at 1.03017 and closed at 1.03052. I have to wonder how much news leaked about the strength of today’s jobs situation report. By the beginning of the eight o’clock hour of trade, EUR/USD had fallen to 1.0257 and continued to fall further to 1.02524.
OMB Statistical Policy Directive 4 allows a federal agency to provide statistical data under embargo. A news outlet may be provided statistical data due for later release under condition that the data is not publicized until a pre-determined time and that the data is not disseminated to any other entity or media outlet without the releasing agency’s authorization. The rationale behind embargoes and the requirements for pre-release access to data is to ensure the integrity, objectivity, quality, and utility of statistical information including getting data to the public in a clear manner.
All systems are hackable, especially human systems. Media gathers information from and distributes it in an environment made increasingly competitive by cable news and social media outlets. One should expect market sentiment to react to the noise that surrounds information.
Alton Drew
10 January 2025
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