Polymarket, an event market, has the probability of a Donald Trump victory this November priced at $.59. This translates to a .59 probability of a win against presumptive Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris, whose probability of winning is priced at $.39.
The spread between Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris is tighter on another well-known platform, PredictIt, where a victory for Mr. Trump is priced at $.52, while a victory for Ms. Harris is priced at $.49.
Real Clear Politics, a polling service, has 47.9% of likely voters leaning toward the former president while 46.2% of likely voters are rolling with the 49th vice-president.
With 100 days until the November 6th election, Ms. Harris has a fast-closing window within which to catch and pass Mr. Trump. Commentators such as Piers Morgan are already declaring Ms. Harris’ first week as presumptive nominee a honeymoon that is now over. To summarize his argument, Ms. Harris can only go so far as her far left political past can take her.
Among her liberal stances was promising not to seek the death penalty when she ran for San Francisco district attorney. She, as a U.S. senator, co-sponsored the Green New Deal and supported a ban on fracking during her 2020 run for president. Ms. Harris, as a U.S. senator, also proposed the Climate Equity Act, a bill requiring the government to evaluate impacts on low-income communities resulting from environmental legislation or regulation.
On the flip side of that liberal trade, some of her critics, ironically in the Democratic Party, have called her out on actions she took as a prosecutor. Former U.S. congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard challenged during a presidential debate in 2019 Ms. Harris’ prosecution of approximately 1,500 individuals for marijuana violations and blocking of evidence that could have released an innocent convict. In addition, Ms. Gabbard pointed out Ms. Harris’ fight to keep a cash bail system in place, one that allegedly has an adverse impact on poor people.
Of particular concern to black male critics of Ms. Harris’ prosecution record is the alleged disproportionate number of blacks drawing her prosecutorial ire. The incarceration rate for blacks, according to a report in the L.A. Times, was approximately five times the share of California’s black population during her tenure as a prosecutor.
This law-and-order record should have self-described conservatives smiling, but Ms. Harris’ support of climate policies, for example, has her at odds with the “drill baby, drill” crowd that support coal and oil extraction.
But is Ms. Harris really a liberal? Yes, according to The New York Post, she would like to finish the Biden agenda which includes universal pre-K education, elder care, and child care. And by the textbook definitions, Ms. Harris’ proposed policies fit her into the liberal box. She believes in regulation, having demonstrated that she is not afraid to protect consumers of bank services, as she did in California. Ms. Harris believes abortion should be legal and is a staunch supporter of reproductive rights.
But her 27-year career as a prosecutor, in my opinion, gives her admission into the conservative camp. Yes, she enforced California’s existing laws, but her perceived aggressiveness in law enforcement either balances off or dilutes her liberal bon fides. While her political opponents may call her radical, her ability to move between both extremes does not make her radical in my book.
Radical, no. Statist, yes.
Ms. Harris’ preference is for a liberal chart for use in applying a branch of state power. Child care, gender care, and reproductive rights are what she is willing to exchange to pay off that segment of society she may feel better aligned with. The same can be said for the Donald Trumps or Tom Cottons of the world who believe that a conservative roadmap for the State to follow is the best route and they are willing to ally with segments of the political economy that want tax cuts and less regulation of their going concerns.
The route taken, liberal versus conservative, is a choice based on what the State finds the most viable for its goal: to expand. State expansion per a liberal course is the bill of goods that Ms. Harris hopes to sell to the State and its electorate.
Alton Drew
28 July 2024
For more of my take on the American political economy, buy my book at amazon.com/author/altondrew.
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 