At 2:27 pm EST, we are waiting for Vice-President Harris to deliver remarks in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Real Clear Politics has Ms. Harris at 46.6% in the polls while former president Donald J. Trump is polling at 48.5%.
The prediction markets have shown incremental upward change in Ms Harris’ favor since earlier this morning. Polymarket has the price of a Trump victory at $.63 while the price of a Harris victory is at $.34. On the PredictIt exchange, a Trump victory is priced at $.57 while a Harris victory is priced at $.45 …
It is 2:35 pm EST and Ms. Harris has taken the stage. Ms. Harris acknowledges the path to the White House goes through Wisconsin, signaling the importance of Wisconsin as a swing state. Ms. Harris shared that she now has enough delegates to secure the nomination. Ms. Harris laid out her framework for campaigning against Mr. Trump. “I know Donald Trump’s type”, she says after describing her role as a prosecutor and attorney general in California.
Ms. Harris asserts that Mr. Trump is trading access in return for contributions, including $1 billion in contributions from oil companies. She contrasted her people campaign to Mr. Trump, describing her efforts as grassroots. She promises a people powered campaign.
Her vision includes the usual progressive agenda items: building up the middle class with health care, housing affordability, and reduced poverty.
Ms. Harris linked the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 to Mr. Trump, arguing that Mr. Trump wants to take the United States “back to the past.”
Background checks and assault weapons bans and reproductive freedom are also on the agenda.
The takeway ….
Ms. Harris, with her emphasis on “freedom”, a word she uttered numerous times, gave me libertarian tease. Albeit the freedom emphasis was placed more on reproductive rights versus the traditional economic rights that libertarians emphasize. There could be room for Ms. Harris to enlarge the freedom call to include economic rights assuming her team points out that opportunity.
Lastly, post her rally speech, Ms. Harris incurred a two-cent decrease in her victory purchase price on PredictIt.
Alton Drew
23 July 2024
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 