Reassessing the strength of Black support for Kamala Harris.

Bloomberg yesterday reported that 44 million black women raised $1.5 million for Vice-President Kamala Harris within a three-hour period. Among the supporters were Bernice King, daughter of the late Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr; U.S. Representative Maxine Waters, Democrat of California; U.S. Representative Joyce Beatty, Democrat of Ohio; and U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett, Democrat of Texas.

Black voters have been ardent supporters of the Democratic Party for decades and supported the Biden-Harris campaign in 2020. Ninety-percent of black voters supported Biden-Harris in the 2020 campaign, according to analysis by Vox. The percentage increase of black voter turnout was 14% between 2016 and 2020. However, the percentage of blacks voting for Biden in 2020 (90%) was lower than the percentage voting for Hillary Clinton in 2016 (93%) or Barack Obama in 2012 (97%).

What is underreported by mainstream media are the reasons for falling black support and whether falling support among blacks for Biden will seep into the support for Kamala Harris. This question is crucial given that the black voting bloc is relied on by the Democratic Party for success.

For example, prior to Mr. Biden exiting the 2024 campaign, his support among black women was waning. According to reporting by The Hill, 64% of black women voters supported Mr. Biden. This was a major decrease from the 95% of black women voters who supported Mr. Biden in 2020. The Hill also noted that 68% of black women voters believed that Ms. Harris would be more effective addressing their issues versus Mr. Biden. This is still a major decline in black woman support from the ticket in 2020.

An interesting finding by Pew Research shows that, given the choice, 49% of black voters would replace Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump. No data on how that percentage has changed given that Ms. Harris has replaced Mr. Biden as the potential Democratic Party nominee. Social media provides some qualitative clues.

There is an undercurrent of pushback by black voters not only against the Democratic Party but also against Ms. Harris specifically. The reasoning may seem unquantifiable by most outside of the black community but has been resonating for some time, starting ironically since the initial campaign of Barack Obama.

A percentage of blacks, I estimate 10-12%, have reparations as a front and center issue. Reparations is the idea that black descendants of slaves brought to the U.S. are entitled to cash payments as compensation for chattel slavery suffered by their ancestors and the repercussions resulting generationally as a result.

In addition, black voters are concerned that the legal protections against crimes to their persons do not equate to those enjoyed by whites.

Ms. Harris, as a woman of Indian-Jamaican descent, is not seen as a candidate that can align or empathize with black Americans on these issues. Elections are a numbers game and a falloff in the number of blacks that choose to go to the polls could be the difference in the vote outcome in November. Ms. Harris, if concerned about this potential lower turnout, will have to employ better outreach efforts if she is to secure this crucial voting bloc.

Although Ms. Harris is a member of a black sorority, given that most blacks are not members of sororities or fraternities much less have college degrees, her initiatives to connect with more blacks will have to be immediate and substantial. She cannot afford to skirt the question of how she would address black issues with responses such as, “I’m not going to be president just for black people but all people.”

Alton Drew

23 July 2024

For more of my take on the American political economy, buy my book at amazon.com/author/altondrew.