Around 1:46 pm today, President Joe Biden, via a letter to delegates, announced that he would not seek nor accept the nomination by the Democratic Party for president. I expected the announcement by tomorrow (Monday), but I guess a Sunday is good as any. More people at home to receive the news. The energy was moving toward this moment given all the pressure placed on Mr. Biden’s inner circle to convince him to give up his quest.
Mr. Biden’s decision to stop seeking the nomination opens the door for his vice-president, Kamala Harris, to pursue the nomination. The President gave Ms. Harris his endorsement and she has picked up the ball by announcing her intent to earn and win the nomination by the Democratic Party.
She has been picking up support from a number of prominent Democrats while potential candidates such as California governor Gavin Newsom and Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer have expressed no desire to challenge for the nomination.
Meanwhile, although they will not admit it, Republicans have, like a poor racquetball player, allowed themselves to be moved out of the center of the court. Last week, the Republican National Committee put on a unified convention, making the attempted assassination of former president Donald Trump a rallying point for the delegates and the party as a whole. By their response to Mr. Biden’s decision to drop out of the race, it seems they were hoping to have Mr. Biden as their punching bag all through to November. For example, Speaker Mike Johnson, Republican of Louisiana, questioned whether it was legal to have Mr. Biden removed from ballots.
It should have someone ask, what are the Republicans afraid of? Kamala Harris? A woman they have been ridiculing since 2019?
The Huffington Post cited election law experts that have concluded that states require the nominee be placed on the ballot and since Mr. Biden is not the Democratic Party’s nominee, the issue of whether it is legal to put someone else on the ballot is moot.
In addition, Speaker Johnson also recommended that Mr. Biden resign from the presidency immediately. If he is too frail to run in 2024 much less govern until 2029, why should he spend another minute in the White House?
Mr. Biden did not refer to his health as a reason for discontinuing his quest for a second term. Who would benefit from such a move and how?
For the Republicans, they may have estimated the probability of failure if Ms. Harris had to both manage a political economy while running for president with six weeks to go to election.
While being pushed into the fire of the Oval Office and successfully managing the ship of state would score her points with the electorate, I do not believe a successful outcome would be assured. There would be too much room for political disaster. A disastrous result would benefit the Republicans.
But failure by Ms. Harris under a Biden resignation scenario could bode well for future Democratic contenders such as Wes Moore or Gavin Newsom. While their names have been tossed around as Democratic Party presidential candidates in 2024, a 2028 run may be in the cards. I have not read or seen any indication that either are interested in a 2028 run, but either, in particular Mr. Moore, may be seen as viable challengers to whoever the 2028 Republican candidate is.
If Ms. Harris were to win the nomination next month and then beat Mr. Trump in the general election, there is the chance that she could serve two terms, thus pushing the hopes of Mr. Moore or Mr. Newsom for the presidency into 2032.
If Mr. Trump wins in November, he will serve only one term. If his vice-presidential pick, JD Vance is feeling ambitious, he will jump into the 2028 race. Given the relative youth of Governor Moore, Governor Newsom, and Senator Vance, it will be the generational change that many Americans want to see.
Alton Drew
21 July 2024
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