One CPI print doth not make an economic outlook, but commentators are observing a potential slowdown in the economy as the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted and rose 3.4 percent over the last twelve months. This, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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All items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in April and up 3.6 percent over the year.
The BLS also reported that real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.2 percent from March to April. Real average weekly earnings are also down, decreasing 0.4 percent over the month.
At first blush, given that a significant number of consumers trade time for earnings, markets for consumer goods and services may see less transactions, maybe. Access to credit may keep the consumer going for awhile as consumers tap into their credit cards to meet their needs.
I ask myself the question, under this scenario, how would price of currencies move?
Alton Drew
15 May 2024
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