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Could dollar weakening be in anticipation of the jobs report?

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Currency pair2 October 20233 October 20234 October 20235 October 2023 
EUR/USD1.04891.04721.05081.0547Dollar weakening
GBP/USD1.20991.20771.21391.2193Dollar weakening
AUD/USD0.63660.63030.63220.6370Flat
USD/JPY149.8064148.8225149.1097148.5140Dollar weakening
USD/CHF0.91800.92070.91710.9131Flat
USD/CAD1.36711.37111.37441.3714Dollar strengthening

Source: x-rates.com

An interesting week for the dollar.  Media banter about a strengthening dollar appeared to subside today.  I can see why based on the above table.  The banter from Federal Reserve System governors and federal reserve bank presidents suggesting rates may be higher for an extended period had pundits arguing that higher rates will contribute to the dollar’s strength.  Based on the above data, that hype has been fizzling out since mid-week.  Then again, weakening dollar may be a signal that markets expect a weak jobs report.

According to data from NADEX, there is a .7450 probability that the EUR/USD will close above 1.0525.  The probability of the GBP/USD closing above 1.2175 is approximately .6875.  There is a .6150 probability that the AUD/USD will close above 0.6375.  The USD/JPY has a .7950 probability of closing above 148.25.

I did not trade this week.  Life and work got in the way.

Alton Drew

5 October 2023

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