The best leading economic indicators are found in these “skreets”…

I love racquetball. Yesterday I played five grueling matches of doubles. The cool part about doubles is that in theory you are covering at most half of the court. That “half” can expand depending on where the other team is placing the ball and whether your partner is in the zone or has hit a mental wall and their mechanics or timing is off.

Having watched Coco Gauff the day before refining the definition of human backboard during her US Open title win over Aryna Sabalenka, I was inspired to run down a few myself. With a ball moving between 80 to 140 miles per hour, the combination of mental and physical exertion when attempting to get everything can take its toll.

Yes, we racquetball players are crazy.

After playing, I changed out and headed to the train station to catch a train back home. It was a lovely day for a walk home from the West End MARTA station. If I was moving slow from fatigue, I myself did not notice it given the sunshine and the thought of getting ready for the US Open men’s final later that day.

So, I was caught off guard when a woman in a red Toyota Corolla pulled up to me and asked if I would be interested in transportation home. The first thought you may have is, “Wow, Alton. You got women hitting on you by asking if you want a ride home?” Her energy, body language, and behavior told me otherwise.

First, she asked if I cared for any transportation home. Her solicitation was formal and I surmised that as part of the service she offered, there would be an exchange of currency. Second was her age and how she sat behind the wheel. She was about my age and had the posture of a trained or professional driver. Lastly, after I declined, rather than driving straight ahead, she pulled into the parking lot of a nearby bank, sat for a few seconds, and headed out in the opposite direction.

I surmised from her cordial and professional demeanor and articulate speech that she was providing a gypsy cab service. It would not surprise me if she was doing that. This is the West End and ninjas are known for getting their hustle and grind on. If this was indeed the case, what then does it say about the signals the markets are reading to determine whether the United States is in a recession?

Bloomberg this morning published an article on the likelihood that consumer’s are at the end of their three-year splurge and that a recession is imminent. The article listed the usual suspects as factors for a slowdown: the expiration on student loan repayment moratoriums; tapping out of credit card lines; increasing interest rates; a slowing down in hiring.

I believe that another indicator that should be added is what I call the “What’s happening in these skreets” indicator. For my non-Afro readers, “skreets” is another word for “streets” and if you picked up on this, you’re probably more down with the culture than you think …. but I digress.

The episode with the lady in the red Corolla tells me that more people are willing to circumvent existing infrastructures in order to make that coin. Should the digital middlemen infrastructure apps such as Uber, Lyft, and Door Dash be mindful that for all the talk of technology being disruptive, the real disruptor is directly connecting with the consumer via the streets?

And when it comes to policy, are policy makers spending too much time exchanging narrative between the ivory towers versus getting into the street behavior of the consumer whose spending sustains capital and bond markets?

Alton Drew

11 September 2023

For more on my take on the political economy, visit my author’s page at amazon.com/author/altondrew.