My back of the napkin forward rate calculation of EUR/USD=1.1210 on Friday. The NADEX is pricing the probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1225 at $4.10. The probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1175 is priced at $7.20. At 9:36 am, Reuters priced the EUR/USD at 1.1210, an increase of 35 pips from yesterday’s 4:15 pm read of 1.1175. … Continue reading The Interbank Markets: EUR/USD hovers around 1.1210 as of 9:36 am.
U.S. Treasury rates The one-month, ten-year, and thirty-year Treasury rates moved down between 9:00 am this morning and 4:30 pm this afternoon. According to Treasury data, the one-month rate stayed relatively the same, moving from 4.38% to 4.37%. The ten-year rate fell from 4.62% to 4.52%, while the 30-year rate fell from 4.83% to 4.72%. … Continue reading Interbank market news scan: Not much change in Federal Reserve Bank of New York reference rates.
Narrative. Perception. Sentiment. That is what I saw tonight in play after the Bank of Japan released its statement on monetary policy. The USD/JPY was trading today around 153.786 at 1:00 pm EST. At 2:00 pm EST, when the Federal Open Market Committee released its statement, the yen had fallen, reflected in a USD/JPY of … Continue reading Narrative. Perception. Sentiment. And the dollar continues to strengthen against the yen.
The Bank of Japan decided to keep its target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate at 0.25% and its deposit facility rate also at 0.25%. The uncollateralized call rate is similar to the Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate while the deposit facility rate resembles the Fed’s interest on reserve balances rate. Japan’s consumer price index … Continue reading And the Bank of Japan has spoken …
The Bank of Japan is set to release its monetary policy statement sometime tonight. The Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to cut the range for the interbank overnight lending fee (fed funds rate) and the interest rate it pays on reserves left on deposit with the Fed by 25 basis points. The cut was expected … Continue reading The markets are waiting on Japan
For merchants entering forward contracts for their international trade, they should keep in mind that markets, overall, are not too concerned about who wins the U.S. presidency, especially given the good odds that the Congress will be split and that whoever is chosen as Treasury secretary will likely maintain the U.S. policy of a strong dollar. Continue reading When it comes to inflation, those Europeans are violent …
It is 10:09 pm EST and the USD/JPY is trading at 150.4809 and the AUD/USD is at 0.6502. Former U.S. president Donald J. Trump got a victory in the U.S. Supreme Court where the court held that the state of Colorado did not have the authority to remove a federal candidate from their primary election … Continue reading On the eve of Super Tuesday, Trump gets a major U.S. Supreme Court victory …
The old adage is that 99% of retail traders fail. I believe that we are failing because we are not good at obtaining and trading the most valuable commodity: information and knowledge. That failure is compounded when we push up against the hourglass of time. Continue reading I heard you should trade like a central bank. Let’s see what the Federal Reserve trading desks are waking up to on 5 September 2023.
Foreign exchange. EUR/USD=1.0957 GBP/USD=1.2694 AUD/USD=0.6493 NZD/USD=0.5983 USD/CHF=0.8765 USD/JPY=144.9400 Treasuries. 30-year=4.27% 10-year=4.16% Reference rates. Discount window=5.50% Interest on reserve balances=5.40% Effective federal funds rate=5.33% Overnight reverse repo rate=5.30% Sources: Board of Governors-Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. (Ready for another challenging trade? https://traderswithedge.com/?r=348 ) Disclaimer: The data and output from this blog post does … Continue reading What foreign exchange, Treasuries, and reference rates is the Federal Reserve looking at on 15 August 2023, 12:16 am EST
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 