Tag: traders

Posted on

Political risks create either shorting opportunities or existential threats …

Four types of political risks arguably move interest rates. First, the perception of fiscal responsibility. If bond holders perceive an increased risk in the government defaulting on bond payments, or not collecting enough in taxes, bond holders will want a higher interest rate before lending the government more money. Second, the economic stances of a … Continue reading Political risks create either shorting opportunities or existential threats …

Posted on

The chances of a 50-basis point hike in fed funds rate higher than reported.

The CME FedWatch tool is reporting a 59% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the federal funds target range to 4.75%-5.00% from the current 5.25%-5.50% range. Business media has been reporting sentiment leaning toward a 25-basis point cut versus the sentiment reported in CME data. For traders, this should signal a bump … Continue reading The chances of a 50-basis point hike in fed funds rate higher than reported.

Posted on

Shouldn’t weak jobs numbers from Labor and ADP result in higher rated debt?

The markets are looking forward to a reduction in less than two weeks in the federal funds target rate. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 59% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points. This means that the overnight rate target range … Continue reading Shouldn’t weak jobs numbers from Labor and ADP result in higher rated debt?

Posted on

Utilities did not escape the markets worries about the economy.

Southern Company reported that its stock price fell to $86.57, down $2.01, or 2.27%. That was in line with the decrease in the S&P Utilities Select Sector Index which fell approximately 2.69% from 751.69 to 731.47. The markets are reportedly spooked by perceived slowdown in the economy and the possibility that companies pushing artificial intelligence … Continue reading Utilities did not escape the markets worries about the economy.

Posted on

Traders and activist investors: Stakeholder analysis of parties to a regulatory action.

Ten years ago, I was asked to represent a social justice organization before the Florida Public Service Commission. The Commission was considering its ten-year integrated resource plan. By general definition, an integrated resource plan is a utility’s description of its resource needs, policy goals, physical, economic, and financial needs, and proposed roadmap for meeting those … Continue reading Traders and activist investors: Stakeholder analysis of parties to a regulatory action.

Posted on

Nationalist versus globalist. An activist investor treatment of government.

Time Range Change in Money Supply Change in Personal Consumption Expenditure Change in Effective Federal Funds Rate January 2023 to January 2024 +9.66% +2.5% +23.09% February 2023 to February 2024 +10.81% +2.5% +16.63% March 2023 to March 2024 +5.59% +2.7% +10.35% April 2023 to April 2024 +3.26% +2.7% +10.35% May 2023 to May 2024 +2.79% … Continue reading Nationalist versus globalist. An activist investor treatment of government.

Posted on

Does the media focus too much on the Federal Reserve?

I swear sometimes that Bloomberg, Reuters, and Yahoo! Finance are nothing but mouthpieces for the Federal Reserve System. During my brief stint as an analyst/editor with Telecommunications Reports, a standard mode for gathering intel on regulatory agencies was to sit next to the fax machine waiting for a press release. We would then confirm the … Continue reading Does the media focus too much on the Federal Reserve?