The biggest takeaway from today’s sit downs with Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, was the continued need for the independence of the Federal Reserve System from political influence and that the maximum employment mandate was not at risk given … Continue reading Of Bostic, Goolsbee, tariffs, and the Panama Canal.
I bought a EUR/USD contract speculating on a close above 1.1700 by 11 am this morning. At 11:00 am, the EUR/USD price at expiration was 1.17385. Tariff uncertainty dominated the media scuttlebutt as markets kept all eyes on President Trump’s letter writing campaign. According to CBS News, Mr. Trump was to send tariff increase letters … Continue reading Binary options: Did Trump’s tariff letters upset the EUR/USD?
Today’s takeaway … US tariff policy still in limbo. If the dollar strengthened after yesterday’s court decision that the President’s tariffs were the result of a misapplication of trade law, that strengthening was short-lived in light of today’s appellate ruling that keeps the President’s tariffs in play for now. (Ready for your next trader challenge? … Continue reading The U.S. Court of International Trade found Trump’s mercantilist message ultra vires. US Court of Appeals-Federal Circuit says hold on …
According to data from MarketWatch, the DOW, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq are up after 48 hours of onslaught of the markets. The price of gold and oil are also up as volatility measured by the VIX has decreased. I do not know how much of the turnaround is due to the reported 90-day pause … Continue reading Back to the Future: A quick post on mercantilism.
The takeaway The markets and the general public are sliding down the rabbit hole of bewilderment as President Trump’s “will I tariff or will I not” approach to America’s trading partners have introduced more uncertainty to US investors. In some ways, this is the fault of investors themselves. I shed no tears for investors who … Continue reading Currency, Interbank, and Money Market News Scan: Trump’s conservative approach to constitutional power makes him look expansive.
There is mumbling amongst the narrative class that legal action is being prepared to address some of President Donald Trump’s executive orders issued yesterday. I cannot say with specificity that Mr. Trump’s America First Trade Policy is among the executive orders targeted for legal action. I am particularly focused on the portion of his America … Continue reading Trump’s America First Trade Policy: Applying Law to the Manifest Destiny Narrative.
As the media reacts to statements by the President-elect regarding tariffs on Canada and Mexico and taking Greenland from Denmark, I have to counsel caution about the weight and gravity of Donald Trump’s pre-inauguration pronouncements. Mr. Trump is not yet the President of the United States and until such time, trading desks should not pull … Continue reading Interbank market news scan: International Economic Emergency Powers Act: Never act on the rumor of executive action.
The expansion of the BRICS alliance has been happening without any noticeable concern by the outgoing Biden-Harris administration. I heard no mention of BRICS by former Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris during her 2024 campaign. As potential de jure head of state, one would think that both her and the presumptive president-elect, Donald Trump, would … Continue reading Trump to the BRICS: “Don’t muscle in on my currency turf.”
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 