Yesterday, I visited the Federal Elections Commission’s website to take a look at the donation activity of primary dealers. Primary dealers are counterparties to trades initiated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York when the bank is conducting monetary policy for the Federal Reserve System. In an admittedly simplistic example, if the Federal Reserve … Continue reading Managing the Trump or Harris trade
As of 10:03 am today, Bloomberg reports a yield of 4.05% and 3.88% on two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries, respectively. Data as of 16 August from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System reported two-year and 10-year yields of 4.08% and 3.92%, respectively. Meanwhile, the markets are betting on a cut in the … Continue reading As the Democratic national convention ramps up, what numbers are we looking at?
Elon Musk interviewed Republican presidential candidate Donald J. Trump today. It happened around the time of my daily walk, so I admit that the interview was not top of mind for me. I am guessing nothing different was said by the former president based on the lack of change in the buy price of a … Continue reading So, there was an interview of Donald Trump on X today? Sorry I missed it.
When Congress passed into law the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978, it called on the Congress, the President, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System to coordinate on economic policy for the purpose of battling inflation and unemployment and securing economic growth. I believe this means that when the president proposes her goals and targets for the economy that she is able to persuade fiscal and monetary policy makers to reconcile their goals with hers. Continue reading The Full Employment Act. Ignored by Trump and Harris alike…
Also, how fickle are Ms. Harris’ supporters? Ms. Harris’ popularity last year around this time was on par with the low approval ratings received by President Biden. Ms. Harris is enjoying a climb in the preference department, but as her record is challenged, will enough of her initial supporters jump ship and numbers move back in favor to Mr. Trump? Continue reading I’m not expecting any political events to move the political events markets today …
When you think about government, you should allow yourself to go outside the box. It means looking at the realities of human behavior and how we relate to each other. The only reason humans force themselves to be together is for the exchange of value. The values exchanged could be promises of physical protection exchanged … Continue reading As I wait for Kamala Harris’ inflation plan, I am convinced she knows nothing about monetary policy.
By 4:25 pm yesterday, the yield on the ten-year bond was at 4.38%, according to data from Bloomberg. No change from the reading when the market opened at 9:30 am. The KBW Bank Index ended at 104.73 up from 103.52 at market opening. The S&P Utilities Select Sector Index yesterday closed at 737.49, up from … Continue reading The choice of Tim Walz did not appear to move markets much …
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 114,000 jobs were created in July 2024. That is a miss from the 175,000 added jobs estimated by the financial markets. Unemployment has ticked up to 4.3%, another miss from the consensus estimate of 4.1%. Most job growth occurred in the non-productive sectors of the economy, namely … Continue reading Jobs report may have voters asking whether Harris or Trump is the better steward of the future economy
Polymarket, an event market, has the probability of a Donald Trump victory this November priced at $.59. This translates to a .59 probability of a win against presumptive Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris, whose probability of winning is priced at $.39. The spread between Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris is tighter on another well-known platform, … Continue reading Is Kamala Harris a liberal? Maybe. A statist? Yes.
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 