The asset holder views a good economy as one where she has the ability to bring good collateral to a prime broker, borrow at a prime rate, and spend the borrowed money on stuff while keeping hope alive that the value of the collateral she brings to the bank or the exchange survives a margin … Continue reading Is it time to stop listening to government messaging on the economy?
Europe is closed for the day and the EUR/USD is, as of 11:01 am, priced at 1.0382. I am still confident that it will trade above 1.0288 by the end of this week. As usual, I am interested in trader sentiment within the gardened walls of the interbank market. Unless you are sitting on the … Continue reading At 11:35 am EST: If I could be the fly on a broker’s wall …
Between September 2023 and September 2024, M2 money supply went from approximately $18,110.3 billion to $18,151.4 billion, according to data from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This amounted to a decrease in money supply of 2.17%. During that period, the money supply dipped as low as $17,923.3 billion in February 2024. … Continue reading Growth in money supply is relatively flat, but is money more expensive?
Today is Fed Day, when the Federal Open Market Committee wraps up its two-day meeting on the state of the U.S. economy and issues its decision on the appropriate rates for regulating the interbank market. 12 USC 225(a) requires that: “The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee … Continue reading Will the new administration apply Project 2025 reforms to the Federal Reserve?
The 4:15 pm fix is in. According to the Federal Reserve’s data, two-year and ten-year yields have been inching up over the last week. Throw in a little dollar weakening compared to the euro. Given we are closer to the beginning of Election Day (14.5 hours at the time of this writing), could some political … Continue reading The fix is in. Yields inching higher. The polls tightening. Tomorrow night will be pizza and popcorn night.
For merchants entering forward contracts for their international trade, they should keep in mind that markets, overall, are not too concerned about who wins the U.S. presidency, especially given the good odds that the Congress will be split and that whoever is chosen as Treasury secretary will likely maintain the U.S. policy of a strong dollar. Continue reading When it comes to inflation, those Europeans are violent …
Today, at 7:06 am EST, the EUR/USD was trading at 1.1094. This reflected a price decrease from the 1.1143 price from yesterday. My take on the euro is that there appears to be less demand for it, not only based on its price but on a consumer expectations survey from the European Central Bank last … Continue reading Israel v Iran: The foreign exchange market is telling me to cool it.
When you think about government, you should allow yourself to go outside the box. It means looking at the realities of human behavior and how we relate to each other. The only reason humans force themselves to be together is for the exchange of value. The values exchanged could be promises of physical protection exchanged … Continue reading As I wait for Kamala Harris’ inflation plan, I am convinced she knows nothing about monetary policy.
Reference rates per Board of Governors-Federal Reserve System Interest on Reserve Balances: 5.40% Discount Window Rate: 5.50% Effective Federal Funds Rate: 5.33% Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Foreign exchange rates AUD/USD=0.6677 NZD/USD=0.6121 USD/JPY=155.39 GBP/USD=1.2672 EUR/USD=1.0868 USD/CAD=1.3615 USD/MXN=16.6852 Source: x-rates.com (Are you ready for your next trader challenge? Visit https://toptiertrader.com/?ref=1449) Head of … Continue reading Retail foreign exchange trader news scan as of 6:46 pm AST. Mester wants to see more progress toward lower inflation.
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 