At 8:27 am, I posted on X that it looks like the market expects a good PPI report. The price was 1.15954. Around 7:41 am the price was 1.16107. The dollar was enjoying some strengthening. But alas, at 8:30 am, we saw a spike in the EUR/USD at 1.16062. By 8:31, the price was at … Continue reading The Producer Price Index is unchanged for the month of June
What the data is telling me … At 8:33 am today, I saw further slight strengthening in the US dollar against the euro and the yen. Data from Reuters evidenced declines from yesterday in the yields of ten-year bonds out of the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, and Japan. These declines told me that … Continue reading Is a recession around the corner?
The Middle Class may serve two masters … Real estate analyst Melody Wright made an observation today on the Julia La Roche Show that is in line with my thinking over the past few months. This economy, she noted, is becoming one where labor services the rich or the less fortunate. Restaurants, financial services, etc., … Continue reading The markets: It’s the exploding froth on the water that gives real information.
The takeaway: Trump wants a balanced budget, but half the work is already done. 15 USC § 3101(b)(2) lists as one of the goals for economic growth a balanced budget. Specifically, the section reads: “(2) Aggregate monetary and fiscal policies alone have been unable to achieve full employment and production, increased real income, balanced growth, … Continue reading Currency and money markets news scan: Trump wants to reverse an “inflation catastrophe.”
The monetary policy takeaway …. GOP members of the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services are flexing their constitutional muscles on monetary policy. On 4 March 2025, the Committee’s Task Force on Monetary Policy, Treasury Market Resilience, and Economic Prosperity will hold a hearing on monetary policy and economic prosperity. “The actions of the Federal … Continue reading Interbank market news scan: As the GOP takes a closer look at monetary policy, does it risk extending inflation?
U.S. Treasury rates Yesterday, the two-year, ten-year, and thirty-year Treasury rates moved down between 9:00 am this morning and 4:30 pm. According to Treasury data, the one-month rate stayed relatively the same, moving from 4.29% to 4.28%. The ten-year rate fell from 4.55% to 4.53%, while the 30-year rate fell from 4.77% to 4.76%. Board … Continue reading Interbank market news scan: Certain overnight rates see an uptick.
Yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he would demand that the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System lower interest rates. Mr. Trump’s off the cuff remarks reminded me of a scene from “Air Force One” where Harrison Ford’s character during a speech made in a central Asian country shared a position on … Continue reading Interbank market news scan: On interest rates, traders be advised that Mr. Trump is out of his lane
U.S. President Donald J. Trump promised today during his inaugural address that he would address the levels of inflation brought on by government overspending and high energy costs. He offered as a solution the old mantra, “Drill, baby, drill” implying that increases in the supply of American extracted and processed oil and gas would increase … Continue reading Interbank market news scan: Trump makes an inflation promise that he can’t keep.
U.S. Representative French Hill, Republican of Arkansas and chairman of the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services, announced earlier this week the formation of the Monetary Policy, Treasury Market Resilience, and Economic Prosperity Task Force. According to Mr. Hill’s statement: “The Committee’s new Task Force will conduct hearings looking into issues relating to monetary policy, … Continue reading Interbank market news scan: Is the U.S. House task force on monetary policy more political than monetary?
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 