The data as of 11:32 EST … Investing.com has calculated a forward rate contract price for EUR/USD on 16 May 2025 at 1.1205. That compares with my back of the napkin forward rate calculation of EUR/USD=1.1210 on Friday. The NADEX is pricing the probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1225 at $4.50. At 11:00 am, Reuters priced … Continue reading The Interbank Markets: Will ECB seek other sources of dollar funding?
The takeaway: Be mindful of the information flow … Banks won this morning at 11:00. I calculated a forward delivery EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.1240 and expected a close at that time of above 1.1200, but the China-US decision to reduce tariff rates for 90 days gave the markets a boost. That boost strengthened demand … Continue reading Banks won this morning …
The bet … Over the weekend, I estimated the EUR/USD would be 1.1380 on Friday 2 May 2025. As of 10:27 pm AST, the spot rate is 1.1350, citing data from x-rates.com. Using the European Central Bank short-term rate of 2.169% and the U.S. 4-week Treasury rate of 4.23% as reported by the Federal Reserve … Continue reading Will the EUR/USD to be at 1.1380 on Friday? Will that change at mid-week?
U.S. Treasury rates The one-month, ten-year, and thirty-year Treasury rates moved down between 9:00 am this morning and 4:30 pm this afternoon. According to Treasury data, the one-month rate stayed relatively the same, moving from 4.38% to 4.37%. The ten-year rate fell from 4.62% to 4.52%, while the 30-year rate fell from 4.83% to 4.72%. … Continue reading Interbank market news scan: Not much change in Federal Reserve Bank of New York reference rates.
At 7:00 am EST, EUR/USD opened at 1.03017 and closed at 1.03052. I have to wonder how much news leaked about the strength of today’s jobs situation report. By the beginning of the eight o’clock hour of trade, EUR/USD had fallen to 1.0257 and continued to fall further to 1.02524. OMB Statistical Policy Directive 4 … Continue reading Are government agencies following their own embargoes?
Analysts at FXStreet see no turn around in Europe’s growth woes especially given rising gas prices this winter. MarketWatch reports the current DXY is at 108.88 (12:21 AM EST) and FXStreet analysts can see the DXY going as high as 110.0 before making a pullback. FXStreet analysts also see continued dollar strengthening expecting the EUR/USD … Continue reading Interbank market news scan: Will trader sentiment push EUR/USD below 1.0321?
Yesterday’s biggest American political event was the election of Mike Johnson, Republican of Louisiana, to serve as Speaker of the House for the 119th Congress. Mr. Johnson was able to avoid a long selection battle for the speakership with the only major challenge coming from U.S. Representative Hakeem Jeffries, Democrat of New York. The next … Continue reading Remain mindful of data releases and political events when reading trade sentiment.
The GOP-controlled 119th Congress will take its seat around noon tomorrow. Over in the House chamber, there will be a vote for the Speaker of the House. Meanwhile, results from the Pan-European Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index demonstrates the danger of making a five day call on where the EUR/USD may end up at week’s end. … Continue reading The 119th Congress takes its seat tomorrow as the dollar continues to strengthen.
Europe is closed for the day and the EUR/USD is, as of 11:01 am, priced at 1.0382. I am still confident that it will trade above 1.0288 by the end of this week. As usual, I am interested in trader sentiment within the gardened walls of the interbank market. Unless you are sitting on the … Continue reading At 11:35 am EST: If I could be the fly on a broker’s wall …
Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets. 