Your current political leadership needs a new school of thought …

One of the problems with current political leadership is that it does not understand that markets and wealth are about turning human activity into yield. To attain this understanding means moving from a mindset that is totally steeped in caretaker mode. The caretaker mode is at the core of concerns on the part of the … Continue reading Your current political leadership needs a new school of thought …

A big move in the EUR/USD as the US government addresses fiscal concerns …

The data is scary … As of 7:08 am EST, the NADEX offered the following binary options contracts for the EUR/USD expiring this Friday (23 May 2025) at 3 pm: Contract closing above 1.1225. Buy at $9.30 Contract closing above 1.1175. Buy at $9.90 Contract closing above 1.1125. Buy at $9.90 I calculated a forward … Continue reading A big move in the EUR/USD as the US government addresses fiscal concerns …

The Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury Did Not Intervene in FX Markets During the First Quarter

May 15, 2025 NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury did not intervene in foreign exchange markets during the January – March 2025 quarter, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said today in its quarterly report to the U.S. Congress. The U.S. dollar, as measured by the Federal Reserve Board’s broad trade-weighted dollar index, … Continue reading The Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury Did Not Intervene in FX Markets During the First Quarter

The dollar weakens in the face of a UK-EU defense and trade reset. A credit downgrade did not help.

As of 8:05 am EST, the NADEX offered the following binary options contracts for the EUR/USD expiring this Friday (23 May 2025) at 3 pm: Contract closing above 1.1225. Buy at $6.90 Contract closing above 1.1175. Buy at $8.40 Contract closing above 1.1125. Buy at $9.20 Contract closing above 1.1075. Buy at $9.90 Contract closing … Continue reading The dollar weakens in the face of a UK-EU defense and trade reset. A credit downgrade did not help.

So far, a 98% chance the EUR/USD will close above 1.1025 this Friday

As of 6:12 pm EST, the NADEX offered the following binary options contracts for the EUR/USD expiring this Friday (23 May 2025) at 3 pm: Contract closing above 1.1225. Buy at $4.10 Contract closing above 1.1175. Buy at $5.00 Contract closing above 1.1125. Buy at $7.70 Contract closing above 1.1075. Buy at $9.10 Contract closing … Continue reading So far, a 98% chance the EUR/USD will close above 1.1025 this Friday

Binary options snapshot from the NADEX at 12:11 EST

Yesterday, I calculated today’s forward price for the EUR/USD at 1.1210. Reuters reported at 12:11 pm EST a EUR/USD price of 1.1143. The dollar has been strengthening since 9:33 am when the USD was priced at 1.1192, falling slightly to 1.1182 around 11:02 am. (Ready for your next trader challenge? Visit https://traderswithedge.com/?r=348) NADEX at 9:43 … Continue reading Binary options snapshot from the NADEX at 12:11 EST

The Interbank Markets: EUR/USD hovers around 1.1210 as of 9:36 am.

My back of the napkin forward rate calculation of EUR/USD=1.1210 on Friday. The NADEX is pricing the probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1225 at $4.10. The probability of EUR/USD exceeding 1.1175 is priced at $7.20. At 9:36 am, Reuters priced the EUR/USD at 1.1210, an increase of 35 pips from yesterday’s 4:15 pm read of 1.1175. … Continue reading The Interbank Markets: EUR/USD hovers around 1.1210 as of 9:36 am.

The Interbank Markets: CFTC Warns Public of Imposter Scam Targeting Fraud Victims

May 14, 2025 WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is warning the public about a growing imposter scam involving individuals falsely claiming to represent the agency. Scammers are contacting members of the public and claiming to represent the CFTC Office of Inspector General. These imposters promise to help financial fraud victims recover lost funds from … Continue reading The Interbank Markets: CFTC Warns Public of Imposter Scam Targeting Fraud Victims